{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"brazil-election","title":"The Brazil's election record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"brazil","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"brazil\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Brazil's election\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. 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Serves at GET /api/truth/brazil-election and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/brazil-election so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"brazil\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. 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Lead subject \"brazil\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Brazil's election\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: santos, senate, trump — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"brazil\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"templated-from-structure","whatThisIs":"A topic on our watch list — we track its coverage across 17 domains, including World Wires, Sports Business and Microplastics.","whyTracked":"We hold 2442 documents from 528 outlets over 6 active days. It runs through 17 coverage domains we watch, including World Wires, Sports Business, Microplastics. 13 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about brazil.","528 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried from three or more separate origins","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"No written definition yet — this line is generated from what we hold, so it cannot claim more than the record does."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-06"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1337,"corroborated":4,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":9,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":324,"originsPublished":324,"recordRows":9,"singleSource":3,"reportedByTwo":1,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":1},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":4,"reported-by-2":1,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":1},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"9 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026: 4 carried from three or more separate origins, 1 reported by two, 3 from a single source, 1 not yet counted. 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A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":16.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-publicly-praise-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":21.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-publicly-praise-flavio-bolsonaro-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":68.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/flavio-bolsonaro-charged-or-arrested-by-september-30-20260609144215531-20261001003357876","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":20.85,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-jair-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Brazil's election has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 6 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":2442,"outlets":528,"activeDays":6,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-05","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-10-05","activeDays":6,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 6 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1472,"outlets":317,"activeDays":42,"since":"2026-06-25","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":{"election":105,"meeting-visit":60,"sports-outcome":45,"utterance":41,"launch-release":35,"military-action":31},"assertionCoverage":0.288,"movesWith":[{"name":"china","together":468,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"united states","together":343,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"europe","together":303,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"africa","together":294,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"ai","together":293,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"russia","together":270,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"trump","together":263,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"france","together":260,"sharedDomains":["auto"]}],"movesWithLabels":["china","united states","europe","africa","ai","russia","trump","france"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":17208,"periods":[{"period":"2026-10","mentions":17},{"period":"2026","mentions":17191}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-06","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":9,"text":"Separate sources agree on 9 things about Brazil's election in the current window: “Brazil heads to a runoff election after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to garner a majority of votes” (carried by 7 publishers from 7 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 3, 2026); “US and Australia suspend consular services in Brazil ahead of election citing security concerns” (carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 2, 2026), and 7 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Brazil's election. We do not backfill history we did not record."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?” at 21.5% (polymarket, Oct 6, 2026), while our own record holds 9 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"7 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"},{"input":"3 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Brazil heads to a runoff election after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to garner a majority of votes","asOf":"2026-10-03"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"US and Australia suspend consular services in Brazil ahead of election citing security concerns","asOf":"2026-10-02"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Lula or Bolsonaro: Wall Street braces for two wildly different results in Brazil election","asOf":"2026-10-01"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?: 21.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-06"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What separate sources agree on","state":"measured","count":9,"text":"Separate sources agree on 9 things about Brazil's election in the current window: “Brazil heads to a runoff election after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to garner a majority of votes” (carried by 7 publishers from 7 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 3, 2026); “US and Australia suspend consular services in Brazil ahead of election citing security concerns” (carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 2, 2026), and 7 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Brazil's election. We do not backfill history we did not record."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?” at 21.5% (polymarket, Oct 6, 2026), while our own record holds 9 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"none-recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Brazil's election. We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/brazil-election","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"brazil-election\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/brazil-election and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Brazil's election has"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-06","generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-fead5e9c","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"brazil-election","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Brazil's election","aliases":["bolsonaro","brazil","brazil election","brazil presidential election","brazil's election","brazil-election","brazilian election","lula","santos","senate","trump"],"eventKey":"brazil-election","entityKeys":["brazil","brazil election","brazil-election","lula","santos","senate","trump"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["brazil-election"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Brazil's election is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (election). 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It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"5d98fa380a1f","claim":"Brazil heads to a runoff election after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to garner a majority of votes","claimUrl":"https://cryptobriefing.com/lula-leads-bolsonaro-in-brazil-2026-election-polls-runoff-likely/","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Publishers carried this from four or more separate origins. 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