{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Florida & Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane\"). It was preferred over florida because it carries this record's own action class (disaster) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hurricane isaias, irs — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["florida","hurricane","hurricane isaias","irs"],"alsoDefensible":["florida"],"rejected":["hurricane isaias","irs"],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-10-16","currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-14","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-16","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-14","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (record-floor)","ageDays":2,"expectedCadenceDays":28,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 2 active day(s) over a 57-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"Sources run through 2026-10-14; the market sensor runs through 2026-10-10, 6 days behind.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-14","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (record-floor)","computedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":28,"gapDays":2,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-10","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-16","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":6,"note":"2 of 2 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt; 2 of 2 open question(s) carry a venue status that does not confirm a live market; they are shown with their own dates and never make this layer current","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-10, 6 days before this record's 2026-10-16 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-10-12"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-16","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-16T08:09:27.305451Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/record/disaster-event-florida-hurricane (earlier address /api/truth/disaster-event-florida-hurricane, still answers) and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/disaster-event-florida-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for SUBJECT MEMBERSHIP, not just the subject's name: \"hurricane\" is the key its corpus was sampled on, so the name alone proves nothing about this event. Every row is judged by the platform's one membership gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership) when the record's data is built, and only the rows it cleared are served; each names the gate's basis in relevance and the terms it found in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 10 attributable rows sampled for \"hurricane\", 4 served, 6 withheld (5 judged off-subject, 1 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":10,"served":4,"withheldNotEventRelevant":6,"withheldOffSubject":5,"withheldUnmeasured":1,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["florida","hurricane"],"questionSet":["hurricane isaias","irs"],"gate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership"},"items":[{"title":"IRS grants Hurricane Isaias tax relief in Alabama, Florida","url":"https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2026/oct/irs-grants-hurricane-isaias-tax-relief-in-alabama-florida/","date":"2026-10-15","source":"Journal of Accountancy","eventTerms":["florida","hurricane","hurricane isaia","irs"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"IRS grants Florida Hurricane Isaias victims tax relief, extends deadlines to Feb. 8, 2027 - wtwcfox","url":"https://fox49.tv/news/local/irs-grants-florida-hurricane-isaias-victims-tax-relief-extends-deadlines-to-feb-8-2027","date":"2026-10-14","source":"IRS Treasury (Google News)","eventTerms":["florida","hurricane","hurricane isaia","irs"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"IRS grants Alabama Hurricane Isaias victims tax relief, extends deadlines to Feb. 4, 2027 - WBMA","url":"https://abc3340.com/news/local/irs-grants-alabama-hurricane-isaias-victims-tax-relief-extends-deadlines-to-feb-4-2027-kay-ivey-montgomery","date":"2026-10-14","source":"Google News Tax Law","eventTerms":["hurricane","hurricane isaia","irs"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Category 3 Hurricane Isaias closes in on the Florida Panhandle","url":"https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/10/category-3-hurricane-isaias-closes-in-on-the-florida-panhandle/","date":"2026-10-09","source":"Yale Climate Connections — Eye on the Storm","eventTerms":["florida","hurricane","hurricane isaia"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"record-floor","documents":4,"outlets":3,"activeDays":2,"firstSeen":"2026-08-19","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-14","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-08-19","end":"2026-10-14","activeDays":2,"basis":["active days is a FLOOR — the 2 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series","outlets is a FLOOR — the 3 distinct outlet(s) among the receipts on this record","documents is a FLOOR — the 4 receipt(s) on this record, not a corpus count","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2508,"outlets":210,"activeDays":45,"since":"2026-07-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-14","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate","disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":1310,"utterance":23,"military-action":11,"regulatory-approval":4,"sports-outcome":3,"legal-ruling":3},"assertsUnit":"headlines that name this subject in the headline itself, counted by the action class the headline asserts; a count of headlines, not of events, and not a finding that this subject performed the action","assertionCoverage":0.543,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":618,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"storm surge","together":297,"sharedDomains":["disaster","extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":256,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"florida","together":358,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"hurricane isaias","together":232,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":220,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"gulf coast","together":204,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"mexico","together":386}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","storm surge","national hurricane center","florida","hurricane isaias","atlantic hurricane season","gulf coast","mexico"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":49,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"}},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"hurricane\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","questionCount":2,"questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?"],"mentions":49,"firstSeen":"2026-08-19","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-14","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-16","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane\"). It was preferred over florida because it carries this record's own action class (disaster) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hurricane isaias, irs — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.","whyTracked":"We hold 4 documents from 3 outlets over 2 active days. It runs through 12 coverage domains we watch, including Weather Climate, World Wires, Water. 2 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-08-19","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Aug 19, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hurricane.","3 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.","No claim on this subject in the current window was carried from three or more separate origins, so nothing below rests on one."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","a claim carried from three or more separate origins"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no first-party issuer row is registered for this record, so no read was attempted","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: the corroboration join - no measured claims section","passed":false},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"cannot-measure","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-10-10","end":"2026-10-16"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1359,"corroborated":0,"published":60,"questionExcluded":10,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":0,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":370,"originsPublished":370,"recordRows":0,"singleSource":0,"reportedByTwo":0,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":0,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":2,"entityCaptures":0,"served":2,"live":2,"expired":0,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-12","live":{"count":2,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-16","reading":"2 of 2 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-16; newest live price seen 2026-10-12). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":"Whether each question is still open at its venue is not verified in this record; the receipt carries the venue's own status as unknown.","note":"2 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 12, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-florida-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.75,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-isaias-make-landfall-in-florida-as-a-hurricane-1791380120953","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.95,"pricedAt":"2026-10-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-16","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Florida & Hurricane has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["active days is a FLOOR — the 2 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series","outlets is a FLOOR — the 3 distinct outlet(s) among the receipts on this record","documents is a FLOOR — the 4 receipt(s) on this record, not a corpus count","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"record-floor","documents":4,"outlets":3,"activeDays":2,"firstSeen":"2026-08-19","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-14","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-08-19","end":"2026-10-14","activeDays":2,"basis":["active days is a FLOOR — the 2 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series","outlets is a FLOOR — the 3 distinct outlet(s) among the receipts on this record","documents is a FLOOR — the 4 receipt(s) on this record, not a corpus count","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2508,"outlets":210,"activeDays":45,"since":"2026-07-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-14","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate","disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":1310,"utterance":23,"military-action":11,"regulatory-approval":4,"sports-outcome":3,"legal-ruling":3},"assertsUnit":"headlines that name this subject in the headline itself, counted by the action class the headline asserts; a count of headlines, not of events, and not a finding that this subject performed the action","assertionCoverage":0.543,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":618,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"storm surge","together":297,"sharedDomains":["disaster","extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":256,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"florida","together":358,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"hurricane isaias","together":232,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":220,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"gulf coast","together":204,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"mexico","together":386}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","storm surge","national hurricane center","florida","hurricane isaias","atlantic hurricane season","gulf coast","mexico"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":49,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"},"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-16","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"the press-claims ledger","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Florida & Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 13, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?: 99.75% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-12"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"the press-claims ledger","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Florida & Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 13, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"cannot-measure","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"cannot-measure","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Florida & Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 13, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/disaster-event-florida-hurricane","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"disaster-event-florida-hurricane\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/record/disaster-event-florida-hurricane and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"claims","text":"What separate sources agree on: we could not measure it. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Florida & Hu"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.corroboratedNow","text":"How well the claims are supported: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroboration join. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the press-claims ledger. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"section":"ourRead.divergence","text":"The outside sensor, beside our record: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroborated set. Not yet read for Oct 16, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"9 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-16","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-4f707144","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. Values are never reconciled, so a difference is shown as it is.","exhibitAsOf":"2026-10-16","recordAsOf":"2026-10-16","recordGeneratedAt":"2026-10-16T15:03:56.964989+00:00","recordVersion":"cb87fc86ceee903b","fields":[{"field":"currency.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"currency.state","value":"not-reliably-current","word":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-14"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.state","value":"not-reliably-current","word":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-14"},"scope":null},{"field":"primarySources.availability","agree":false,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.primarySources.status","value":"not-available","word":"absent","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.sectionStates.primaryDocuments.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":"2026-10-16"},"scope":{"kind":"same-fact-different-word","why":"Both say no first-party layer is registered for this subject. The exhibit calls it `absent` because no issuer is routed. The record calls it `cannot-measure` and gives the reason in sectionStates.primaryDocuments.reason. Neither side is changed to match the other."}},{"field":"consensus.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.consensus","value":"not-computed","word":"pending","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.consensusLedger","value":"not-computed","word":"no-ledger-layer","asOf":null},"scope":null},{"field":"refereeGrades.state","agree":false,"exhibit":{"path":"refereeGrades.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.sectionStates.refereeGrades.state","value":"never-published-on","word":"never-published-on","asOf":null},"scope":{"kind":"different-question","exhibit":"per-subject grades of the market prices we cite: the grading runs across every subject at once, so no grade for one subject exists to read","record":"the referee ledger's per-subject count of tracked probabilities and how many have been graded (the record's refereeGradesMeta.counts)","why":"The two answer different questions, and both say no grade exists for this subject. The record counts tracked rows and finds none graded; the exhibit says no per-subject grade can be read. Neither is restated as the other."}},{"field":"ourRead.contradicted.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"ourRead.contradicted.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.ourRead.contradicted.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"scope":null}],"unlabelled":0,"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_state_scope_parity.mjs fails the build when a row differs with no scope."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-10-16","previousTier":"minimal","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane","aliases":["disaster-event-florida-hurricane","disaster: florida & hurricane"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","entityKeys":["disaster-event-florida-hurricane","disaster: florida & hurricane"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-florida-hurricane"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). The record carries 4 receipt(s) — a floor, not a corpus count.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-08-19","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (record-floor)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-10-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. We serve current state, not forecasts.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-florida-by-november-30-2026","pricePct":99.75,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-12","endDate":"2026-12-08","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-florida-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-isaias-make-landfall-in-florida-as-a-hurricane-1791380120953","pricePct":99.95,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-10","endDate":"2026-10-16","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-florida-hurricane","deadline":"2026-10-16","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","dropped":0,"live":{"count":2,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-16","reading":"2 of 2 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-16; newest live price seen 2026-10-12). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":4,"outlets":3,"activeDays":2,"firstSeen":"2026-08-19","lastSeen":"2026-10-14","assertionMix":null,"countsBasis":"record-floor","receiptsOnRecord":4,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":0,"basis":["active days is a FLOOR — the 2 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series","outlets is a FLOOR — the 3 distinct outlet(s) among the receipts on this record","documents is a FLOOR — the 4 receipt(s) on this record, not a corpus count","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[],"corroboratedCount":0,"reportedByTwo":[],"reportedByTwoCount":0,"singleSource":[],"singleSourceCount":0,"cannotCheckCount":0,"countsIn":{"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-10","end":"2026-10-16"},"counts":["corroboratedCount","reportedByTwoCount","singleSourceCount","cannotCheckCount"]},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"comparablePairs":0,"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-10-16"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","pricePct":99.75,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-10-12","deadline":"2026-12-08","collection":"live"},"corroboratedClaims":0,"text":"The crowd prices “Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?” at 99.75% on polymarket (seen 2026-10-12), beside 0 claim(s) on this record carried from 3 or more separate origins. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, publisher and origin counts","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-14","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-16","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-14","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (record-floor)","ageDays":2,"expectedCadenceDays":28,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 2 active day(s) over a 57-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"Sources run through 2026-10-14; the market sensor runs through 2026-10-10, 6 days behind.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-14","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (record-floor)","computedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":28,"gapDays":2,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-10","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-16","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":6,"note":"2 of 2 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt; 2 of 2 open question(s) carry a venue status that does not confirm a live market; they are shown with their own dates and never make this layer current","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-10, 6 days before this record's 2026-10-16 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-10-12"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-16","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-16T08:09:27.305451Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"record-floor","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-08-19","to":"2026-10-14","activeDays":2,"documents":4,"outlets":3},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-10-10","to":"2026-10-16"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-08-19","basis":"first counted document (record-floor)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-10-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":0,"total":0,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[],"claimsShown":0,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":0,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the record-floor for this subject — 4 document(s) over 2 active day(s) from 2026-08-19 to 2026-10-14; its 0 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-16 and include every agreement tier (0 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-08-19 — first counted document (record-floor); other structures date it 2026-10-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/disaster-event-florida-hurricane","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"disaster-event-florida-hurricane\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":"","dropped":0,"relevanceDropped":1,"relevanceUnmeasured":0,"questionExcluded":0,"cohesionExcluded":0,"note":"the corroboration engine joined 1 cluster(s) to this subject via document/entity match, but the subject-relevance gate found none evidenced as being about this subject (1 off-subject, 0 unjudgeable, 0 a question, not a claim): a reading, not a blind spot","fields":{"publisherCount":"Distinct publishers that carried the claim, after wire copies, republished copies and same-portal duplicates are collapsed.","originCount":"Separate origins after publishers behind one canonical address, and publishers relaying one named upstream, are collapsed into one (rule origins@2, which also counts a wire's own site and its tagged republications as that wire, and never counts an aggregator redirect that names no publisher). The tier and the state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when the count was not measured) are computed from it. Not dependency-aware evidentiary independence: an outlet that names no upstream still counts as its own origin.","originsUnknownUpstream":"How many counted origins had no readable text beyond a headline, so whether they relay someone else could not be checked.","originBasis":"The counting, in words, for this row.","deprecatedAliases":{"independentOrigins":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value: the separate origins whose upstream is known, the count the state stands on (null when not measured). Never larger than that count; before 2026-10-12 it carried the publisher count. Read knownOriginCount, publisherCount and originCount.","independentCount":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value (null when not measured) — not dependency-aware evidentiary independence. Read knownOriginCount and originCount.","independenceBasis":"DEPRECATED alias of originBasis, identical value.","independenceState":"DEPRECATED name for whether this row's counts were measured: measured or cannot-measure. originState says whether originCount was computed from origin chains."},"knownOriginCount":"Separate origins whose upstream is known: originCount minus originsUnknownUpstream. The state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when it was not measured) stands on this count; origins whose text could not be read are shown in originCount and never counted."}},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":"","counts":{"published":0,"graded":0},"note":"the referee ledger was read end to end; the house has never published a probability on this subject"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-10-16","what":"tier promoted minimal → standard"},{"at":"2026-10-16","what":"record created"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:03:56.964989+00:00","asOf":"2026-10-16","windowStart":"2026-10-10","windowEnd":"2026-10-16","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","sha":"7935d1791e90c40c"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","sha":"0203adb81f2a7dee"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T11:48:01.311281+00:00","sha":"6bcce06e7eb8a7f8"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"c07aaccc480cfbf4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16","sha":"b694e7980861a625"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"c07ecbb1348fd4db"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T08:09:27.305451Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"97d73add7d407421"}],"recordVersion":"cb87fc86ceee903b"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/disaster-event-florida-hurricane.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.record.v1 view over it (earlier tag sb.truth.v1, still listed in its schemaAliases) — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/record/disaster-event-florida-hurricane","mcpTool":"get_topic_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-10-16","previousTier":"minimal","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane","aliases":["disaster-event-florida-hurricane","disaster: florida & hurricane"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-florida-hurricane","entityKeys":["disaster-event-florida-hurricane","disaster: florida & hurricane"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-florida-hurricane"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Florida & Hurricane is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). The record carries 4 receipt(s) — a floor, not a corpus count.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-08-19","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (record-floor)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-10-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. We serve current state, not forecasts.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-florida-by-november-30-2026","pricePct":99.75,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-12","endDate":"2026-12-08","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-florida-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-isaias-make-landfall-in-florida-as-a-hurricane-1791380120953","pricePct":99.95,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-10","endDate":"2026-10-16","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-florida-hurricane","deadline":"2026-10-16","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","dropped":0,"live":{"count":2,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","Will Isaias make landfall in Florida as a hurricane?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-16","reading":"2 of 2 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-16; newest live price seen 2026-10-12). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":4,"outlets":3,"activeDays":2,"firstSeen":"2026-08-19","lastSeen":"2026-10-14","assertionMix":null,"countsBasis":"record-floor","receiptsOnRecord":4,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":0,"basis":["active days is a FLOOR — the 2 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series","outlets is a FLOOR — the 3 distinct outlet(s) among the receipts on this record","documents is a FLOOR — the 4 receipt(s) on this record, not a corpus count","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[],"corroboratedCount":0,"reportedByTwo":[],"reportedByTwoCount":0,"singleSource":[],"singleSourceCount":0,"cannotCheckCount":0,"countsIn":{"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-10","end":"2026-10-16"},"counts":["corroboratedCount","reportedByTwoCount","singleSourceCount","cannotCheckCount"]},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"comparablePairs":0,"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-10-16"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?","pricePct":99.75,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-10-12","deadline":"2026-12-08","collection":"live"},"corroboratedClaims":0,"text":"The crowd prices “Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?” at 99.75% on polymarket (seen 2026-10-12), beside 0 claim(s) on this record carried from 3 or more separate origins. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, publisher and origin counts","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-10-14","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-16","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-14","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (record-floor)","ageDays":2,"expectedCadenceDays":28,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 2 active day(s) over a 57-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"Sources run through 2026-10-14; the market sensor runs through 2026-10-10, 6 days behind.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-14","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (record-floor)","computedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":28,"gapDays":2,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-10","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-16","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":6,"note":"2 of 2 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt; 2 of 2 open question(s) carry a venue status that does not confirm a live market; they are shown with their own dates and never make this layer current","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-10, 6 days before this record's 2026-10-16 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-10-12"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-16","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-16T08:09:27.305451Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"record-floor","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-08-19","to":"2026-10-14","activeDays":2,"documents":4,"outlets":3},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-10-10","to":"2026-10-16"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-08-19","basis":"first counted document (record-floor)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-10-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":0,"total":0,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[],"claimsShown":0,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":0,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the record-floor for this subject — 4 document(s) over 2 active day(s) from 2026-08-19 to 2026-10-14; its 0 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-16 and include every agreement tier (0 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-08-19 — first counted document (record-floor); other structures date it 2026-10-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/disaster-event-florida-hurricane","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"disaster-event-florida-hurricane\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":"","dropped":0,"relevanceDropped":1,"relevanceUnmeasured":0,"questionExcluded":0,"cohesionExcluded":0,"note":"the corroboration engine joined 1 cluster(s) to this subject via document/entity match, but the subject-relevance gate found none evidenced as being about this subject (1 off-subject, 0 unjudgeable, 0 a question, not a claim): a reading, not a blind spot","fields":{"publisherCount":"Distinct publishers that carried the claim, after wire copies, republished copies and same-portal duplicates are collapsed.","originCount":"Separate origins after publishers behind one canonical address, and publishers relaying one named upstream, are collapsed into one (rule origins@2, which also counts a wire's own site and its tagged republications as that wire, and never counts an aggregator redirect that names no publisher). The tier and the state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when the count was not measured) are computed from it. Not dependency-aware evidentiary independence: an outlet that names no upstream still counts as its own origin.","originsUnknownUpstream":"How many counted origins had no readable text beyond a headline, so whether they relay someone else could not be checked.","originBasis":"The counting, in words, for this row.","deprecatedAliases":{"independentOrigins":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value: the separate origins whose upstream is known, the count the state stands on (null when not measured). Never larger than that count; before 2026-10-12 it carried the publisher count. Read knownOriginCount, publisherCount and originCount.","independentCount":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value (null when not measured) — not dependency-aware evidentiary independence. Read knownOriginCount and originCount.","independenceBasis":"DEPRECATED alias of originBasis, identical value.","independenceState":"DEPRECATED name for whether this row's counts were measured: measured or cannot-measure. originState says whether originCount was computed from origin chains."},"knownOriginCount":"Separate origins whose upstream is known: originCount minus originsUnknownUpstream. The state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when it was not measured) stands on this count; origins whose text could not be read are shown in originCount and never counted."}},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":"","counts":{"published":0,"graded":0},"note":"the referee ledger was read end to end; the house has never published a probability on this subject"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-10-16","what":"tier promoted minimal → standard"},{"at":"2026-10-16","what":"record created"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:03:56.964989+00:00","asOf":"2026-10-16","windowStart":"2026-10-10","windowEnd":"2026-10-16","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","sha":"7935d1791e90c40c"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T15:00:20.092962+00:00","sha":"0203adb81f2a7dee"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T11:48:01.311281+00:00","sha":"6bcce06e7eb8a7f8"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"c07aaccc480cfbf4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16","sha":"b694e7980861a625"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"c07ecbb1348fd4db"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-16T08:09:27.305451Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"97d73add7d407421"}],"recordVersion":"cb87fc86ceee903b"}},"responseLimits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}