{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry — WITH a first-party primary-source layer attached (layer 0 below names the issuing authorities and the exact documents this platform reads). Still standard, and here is the honest gap: no reporting-consensus ledger has been computed for this subject, and layer 0 is machine-fetched rather than backed by a hand-verified source-of-record audit like the full-tier records carry.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["alabama","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["alabama","hawaii","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-10-06","currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-23","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-06","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-23","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":13,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","state":"unreadable-since 2026-10-05","lastReadAt":"2026-10-05"}],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-23, 13 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap, and 1 of its registered primary sources could not be read (NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings).","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products)","computedAt":"2026-10-06","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-09-23","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":13,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-09-23 (computed 2026-10-06), 13 days before this record's 2026-10-06 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfBasis":"the newest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline","computedAt":"2026-10-06","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"note":"2 of 6 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"current","reason":""},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-06T08:07:26.112210Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"reportingCounts","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — the first-party issuing authorities for this subject, read from their own machine-readable feeds. A reader can fetch the same document and check this row against it.","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-05","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":2,"sourcesFailing":1,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-06","failingSince":"2026-10-05"},"verificationMethod":"Automated fetch of each issuer's own machine-readable feed, on a runner with egress (scripts/refresh_hurricane_sources.py). NOT hand-verified: no human confirmed these values, so every row states its own read state and the record claims nothing beyond it. A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-06","observed":"No active tropical cyclones (2026-10-06) — There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 06 Oct 2026 09:35:46 GMT","observedAsOf":"2026-10-06","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"acd-65d28b979f525\"","lastModified":"Tue, 06 Oct 2026 09:35:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:7a6c93f442909cedd4411a5e11437d6169703d382a7ed09fd562bfbd179f0670","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical cyclones","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-02T09:32:29+00:00"},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical cyclones","observedDate":"2026-10-06","observedReadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-06","observed":"...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD... (2026-10-06) — Hurricane Rachel; max sustained winds 85 mph; min central pressure 976 mb; movement W at 8 mph; center 20.3, -118.6","observedAsOf":"2026-10-06","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"411d-65d28b979f52f\"","lastModified":"Tue, 06 Oct 2026 09:35:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:a5a09092b7586e5fcec47a0b137c136da0b33fb1c3df9950267fe71b7eed13fe","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastReadRef":"...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...","observedDate":"2026-10-06","observedReadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-05","observed":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-10-05) — The National Weather Service active-alerts query for hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings returned no active alerts. An empty result from a query endpoint is an answer, not a failed read.","observedAsOf":"2026-10-05","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","consecutiveFailures":1,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastError":"HTTPError: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request","etag":"W/\"9bce38a7a4ae576421fddba6305cf941:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:4abb2afbb66f96809000a85be67db054ed3c476b212e18569ab60ad282fcf69c","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":1,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-10-05","observedReadAt":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"observedStale":true,"observedNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request.","readState":"unreadable-on-last-run","readStateNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request."}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hurricane\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 7 attributable rows for \"hurricane\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Disaster: Hurricane\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":7,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":7,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster"],"questionSet":["landfall","hawaii","category","texas","november","louisiana","mississippi","alabama"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1796,"outlets":512,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-23","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-23","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1684,"outlets":158,"activeDays":38,"since":"2026-01-26","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate","disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":955,"utterance":27,"sports-outcome":15,"military-action":12,"launch-release":11,"meeting-visit":10},"assertionCoverage":0.626,"movesWith":[{"name":"national hurricane center","together":389,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic","together":478,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"noaa","together":201,"sharedDomains":["disaster","weather_climate"]},{"name":"hurricane polo","together":188,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"miami","together":275,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"tropical depression","together":172,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":173,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":171,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]}],"movesWithLabels":["national hurricane center","atlantic","noaa","hurricane polo","miami","tropical depression","hawaii","atlantic hurricane season"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":1054,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":26},{"period":"2026-11","mentions":220},{"period":"2026","mentions":808}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-first-hurricane-form-in-the-atlantic-in-2026-20260904095717296","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":83,"change24hPct":32,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-09-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","questionCount":24,"questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?"],"mentions":1054,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-23","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-06","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: layer 0 carries 3 first-party issuers read from their own feeds, each stating the date it speaks for; the reporting-consensus ledger is what this record still lacks against a full-tier one."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.","whyTracked":"We hold 1796 documents from 512 outlets over 9 active days. It runs through 8 coverage domains we watch, including Weather Climate, World Wires, Water. 24 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hurricane.","512 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.","No claim on this subject in the current window was carried from three or more separate origins, so nothing below rests on one."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a claim carried from three or more separate origins"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","passed":false},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"cannot-measure","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-06"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1337,"corroborated":0,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":9,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":324,"originsPublished":324,"recordRows":0,"singleSource":0,"reportedByTwo":0,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":0,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — the first-party issuing authorities for this subject, read from their own machine-readable feeds. A reader can fetch the same document and check this row against it.","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-05","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":2,"sourcesFailing":1,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-06","failingSince":"2026-10-05"},"verificationMethod":"Automated fetch of each issuer's own machine-readable feed, on a runner with egress (scripts/refresh_hurricane_sources.py). NOT hand-verified: no human confirmed these values, so every row states its own read state and the record claims nothing beyond it. A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-06","observed":"No active tropical cyclones (2026-10-06) — There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 06 Oct 2026 09:35:46 GMT","observedAsOf":"2026-10-06","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"acd-65d28b979f525\"","lastModified":"Tue, 06 Oct 2026 09:35:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:7a6c93f442909cedd4411a5e11437d6169703d382a7ed09fd562bfbd179f0670","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical cyclones","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-02T09:32:29+00:00"},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical cyclones","observedDate":"2026-10-06","observedReadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-06","observed":"...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD... (2026-10-06) — Hurricane Rachel; max sustained winds 85 mph; min central pressure 976 mb; movement W at 8 mph; center 20.3, -118.6","observedAsOf":"2026-10-06","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"411d-65d28b979f52f\"","lastModified":"Tue, 06 Oct 2026 09:35:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:a5a09092b7586e5fcec47a0b137c136da0b33fb1c3df9950267fe71b7eed13fe","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastReadRef":"...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...","observedDate":"2026-10-06","observedReadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-05","observed":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-10-05) — The National Weather Service active-alerts query for hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings returned no active alerts. An empty result from a query endpoint is an answer, not a failed read.","observedAsOf":"2026-10-05","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","consecutiveFailures":1,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastError":"HTTPError: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request","etag":"W/\"9bce38a7a4ae576421fddba6305cf941:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:4abb2afbb66f96809000a85be67db054ed3c476b212e18569ab60ad282fcf69c","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":1,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-10-05","observedReadAt":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"observedStale":true,"observedNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request.","readState":"unreadable-on-last-run","readStateNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 400: Bad Request."}],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"disaster-event-hurricane","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":6,"expired":0,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-06","live":{"count":6,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-06","questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-06","reading":"6 of 6 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-06; newest live price seen 2026-10-06). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 6, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-texas-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":35.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-mississippi-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":7.95,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-louisiana-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":23.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-alabama-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":6.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-before-2027-20260721182828397","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":11.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-29","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":5.9,"pricedAt":"2026-09-04","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Hurricane has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1796,"outlets":512,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-23","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-23","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1684,"outlets":158,"activeDays":38,"since":"2026-01-26","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate","disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":955,"utterance":27,"sports-outcome":15,"military-action":12,"launch-release":11,"meeting-visit":10},"assertionCoverage":0.626,"movesWith":[{"name":"national hurricane center","together":389,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic","together":478,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"noaa","together":201,"sharedDomains":["disaster","weather_climate"]},{"name":"hurricane polo","together":188,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"miami","together":275,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"tropical depression","together":172,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":173,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":171,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]}],"movesWithLabels":["national hurricane center","atlantic","noaa","hurricane polo","miami","tropical depression","hawaii","atlantic hurricane season"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":1054,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":26},{"period":"2026-11","mentions":220},{"period":"2026","mentions":808}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-06","firstParty":{"state":"measured","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products reports No active tropical cyclones, dated 2026-10-06; NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products reports ...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD..., dated 2026-10-06; NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings reports No active tropical-cyclone alerts, dated 2026-10-05. Read from the issuer Oct 6, 2026."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 1, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"none-held","rows":[],"text":"Every first-party document on this record is inside the 90-day window; nothing is held back as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products: No active tropical cyclones","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products: ...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings: No active tropical-cyclone alerts","asOf":"2026-10-05","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-05T09:48:08+00:00"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?: 35.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-06"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"measured","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products reports No active tropical cyclones, dated 2026-10-06; NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products reports ...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD..., dated 2026-10-06; NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings reports No active tropical-cyclone alerts, dated 2026-10-05. Read from the issuer Oct 6, 2026."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What separate sources agree on","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 1, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"none-held","rows":[],"text":"Every first-party document on this record is inside the 90-day window; nothing is held back as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"measured","corroboratedNow":"cannot-measure","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"cannot-measure","heldAsProvenance":"none-held"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 1, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"disaster-event-hurricane\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"claims","text":"What separate sources agree on: we could not measure it. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Hurricane ha"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.corroboratedNow","text":"What separate sources agree on: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroboration join. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"section":"ourRead.divergence","text":"The outside sensor, beside our record: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroborated set. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."}],"standing":[],"note":"7 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-06","generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-c0caca5d","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-10-02","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Hurricane","aliases":["alabama","disaster-event-hurricane","disaster: hurricane","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-hurricane","entityKeys":["alabama","disaster-event-hurricane","disaster: hurricane","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-hurricane"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Hurricane is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). The record joins 1796 document(s) from 512 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. 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