{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"hormuz","title":"The Hormuz record","tier":"full","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hormuz","bound":true,"basis":"full-tier-hand-carved","statement":"Full-tier record: the subject was chosen by hand and its first-party issuers hand-verified — not derived from the event registry. Every layer below is this subject's own; nothing is borrowed.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz"]},"publishState":"published","asOf":"2026-10-13","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-10-13","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-13","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-13","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-10-13, inside its daily cadence.","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-10-12","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NAVAREA IX navigational warnings)","computedAt":"2026-10-13","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":1,"state":"current","reason":""},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-13","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-13T23:28:00.899377+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-13","asOfBasis":"the newest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline","computedAt":"2026-10-13","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"note":"2 of 6 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"current","reason":""},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-13","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-13T19:51:56.793305Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"curatedReporting":{"key":"curatedReporting","label":"curated reporting rows","asOf":"2026-10-12","asOfBasis":"the newest dated reporting row the tracked-entity snapshot carries","computedAt":"2026-10-13T23:28:00.899377+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":1,"state":"current","reason":""},"consensusLedger":{"key":"consensusLedger","label":"reporting-consensus ledger","asOf":"2026-10-13","asOfBasis":"the last day of the corpus the ledger was computed over, as its own corpus statement gives it (web/signal-bureau/lib/claims_hormuz.json)","computedAt":"2026-10-13T21:33:03+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":null,"stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-13T23:28:00.899377+00:00","tracked":true,"trackedNote":null,"access":"Free — a public exhibit record: no key, no charge. The same object renders at https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/, serves at GET /api/record/hormuz (earlier address /api/truth/hormuz, still answers), and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool.","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/ so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — first-party operational issuers for the strait itself, verified by direct fetch","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-13","failingSince":null},"discipline":"Honest label: rows carry their verification date, not a live refresh, and they do not silently update. A stamp moves only on a confirmed verification, and each row says which date it speaks for. The live automation status of this layer is stated on the layer itself (the automation field), derived from the fetch-health records below, never asserted ahead of them.","sourceOfRecord":"qa/c3_jobs/hormuz-operational-sources/RESULTS.md (#387)","tripwirePair":{"sources":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"UKMTO/JMIC advisory notes plus NAVAREA IX navigational warnings are the layer-0 tripwire pair: both first-party, both refreshed within 1-3 days of verification, both carrying incident-level Strait state."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:26"},"sources":[{"id":"ukmto-jmic","name":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes","issuer":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)","tier":"primary","cadence":"~every 2–3 days","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","observed":"Update 103 (08 october)","observedAsOf":"2026-10-08","links":[{"label":"newest advisory (PDF)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-103-jmic-advisory-note-08-october.pdf"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-09T09:43:26+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"ba563cb6de484295ae3962ca0878df68","lastModified":"Thu, 08 Oct 2026 16:17:10 GMT","signature":"sha256:478b8a1657ba37802a437746f3868ef0141b03a5a71a70a20e83c24ad7353eb1","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"linkNote":"Not an index page. The issuer's advisory shelf assembles its list in the reader's browser and serves 'No products to display' to a fetcher (the crawl's own 2026-09-04 log reached the shelf and saw only footer PDFs), while each advisory is served directly under /-/media/ukmto/products/ as update-<n>-jmic-advisory-note-<dd>-<month>.pdf. This link is the newest advisory on record and it is a CURSOR, not a pin: the daily sequence probe (discovery.sequence, producer state in probeLog) walks the number forward every run and moves the link to whatever the issuer has published. Authored 2026-09-05 from search-indexed evidence, not from a fetch by the authoring session (the session VM has no egress); the daily run is the referee. History, never scrubbed: 2026-09-03 repointed the row to two shelf pages the crawl had fetched with 200, and both answered 404 on every fetch after; before that, update-073's own PDF (19 July), which re-fetching daily proved still existed and could never discover update 074.","discovery":{"root":"https://www.ukmto.org/","productPattern":"(?:update|advisor)[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*\\.pdf","note":"UKMTO publishes each JMIC advisory as a numbered PDF, so the index we want is whichever page links the most of them. Discovery runs only when the recorded links fail. Widened 2026-08-28 per the scout's productPattern-change verdict (#506/#536): the 2026-08-28 hunt saw 7 issuer PDFs, none matching the old update-<n>- shape, so the pattern now also accepts advisory-style names while still refusing the observed flyer/chart/BMP files. Safe to widen: discovery only NOMINATES; the row's own extractor must pull a real advisory reading before anything repoints (a wrong guess leaves the row unreadable, never wrongly read). If discovery finds the shelf and the reader still extracts nothing, the next fix class is the extractor's own filename pattern, with the found page as evidence. Sequence probe added 2026-09-05 (#506): the 2026-09-04 crawl's verdict named a productPattern fix, but the seven documents it saw are the shelf's footer charts/booklet/flyer, and the advisory list itself is rendered client-side, so no pattern can match a link the server never sends. The artifacts are served at a predictable media path, so discovery.sequence now walks the advisory number forward directly (every run, not only on failure); this crawl config stays as the fallback when the row's links fail.","sequence":{"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","start":82,"startDate":"2026-08-09","maxProbes":60,"maxGap":2,"note":"The newest advisory known when this was authored (2026-09-05): update-082, dated 09 August, at the path the template renders (search-indexed, not fetched by the authoring session). The walk probes {n}+1.. for each date from the cursor's date forward, accepts only a PDF body, refuses everything if a canary number (n+1000) resolves, and resumes from probeLog.probedThrough. maxGap 2 tolerates two numbers in the series belonging to other JMIC products; maxProbes 60 lets the first catch-up cover the weeks the row spent dead in about two runs. If tomorrow's probeLog shows the sample URLs 404ing, the convention or host moved (the footer PDFs live on sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/...), so change this template, not the crawl."}},"discoveryLog":{"found":false,"reachable":true,"pagesVisited":36,"visited":["https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/warnings","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products","https://www.ukmto.org/indian-ocean","https://www.ukmto.org/","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/weekly-reports","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/mievom-notes","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/industry","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/imo","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/initial-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/daily-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/final-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/incident-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/after-action-report","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/infonotes","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/weekly-dashboard","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-monthly-statistics","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/favicon.ico","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/94a11e200e1cebc1.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/b44f3e0dc3fff5a8.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/82fff4ee3068a208.css","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/footer-ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/about-us","https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents","https://www.ukmto.org/best-management-practices","https://www.ukmto.org/contact-us","https://www.ukmto.org/terms-and-conditions","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-main.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-border.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-text.svg","http://www.ukmto.org"],"pageBudget":40,"maxDepth":3,"candidatesProbed":9,"spilloverPages":15,"documentLinksSeen":7,"scriptedPages":27,"documentLinkSample":["https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/cmf/irta_mar-24.pdf?rev=f68a15866ace44c7ab3859b0b54ceb22","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/charts/q6099_low-res_ed11_2025.pdf?rev=8cbe027613764370a3fec7976a7abe19&amp;hash=C121A5BEFDE188DE15FD9AF3B54ACDA8","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/bmp/bmp-ms_hi-res_s.pdf?rev=2c338d856b0b4c169364b96766b12b27&amp;hash=8A19D49513D46613C44C7B51FC16F8D1","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-flyer-aug-2025.pdf?rev=e496e07a3da342b8bb89f268f21ad9a9","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-bridge-emergency-reference-cards---middle-east---digital---rev20dec2024.pdf?rev=c496f5a149b9480ab4cc13d8a1da4c06"],"note":"No page links or lists artifacts matching the product pattern, but the crawl DID see 7 document link(s) that do not match it (documentLinkSample). The issuer has likely renamed its files, so the fix is a productPattern change on the row's discovery config, not a URL swap and not a wider crawl.","at":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastReadRef":"Update 103","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"probeLog":{"found":false,"probes":13,"canary":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-1103-jmic-advisory-note-13-october.pdf","probeBudget":60,"maxGap":2,"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","highest":103,"highestDate":"2026-10-08","cursorUrl":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-103-jmic-advisory-note-08-october.pdf","advancedCount":0,"advanced":[],"candidates":[104,105,106],"exhausted":false,"sample":["https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-104-jmic-advisory-note-10-october.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-105-jmic-advisory-note-10-october.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-10-october.pdf"],"probedFrom":"2026-10-10","today":"2026-10-13","probedThrough":"2026-10-10","note":"No newer artifact than 103 (2026-10-08) answers this template for any date through 2026-10-13 (13 probe(s), sample in `sample`). If the issuer has published since, its naming changed, so the fix is the template, not a wider walk.","at":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00"},"observedRef":"Update 103","observedDate":"08 october","observedReadAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":5,"observedArtifact":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-103-jmic-advisory-note-08-october.pdf","readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"navarea-ix","name":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings","issuer":"National Hydrographic Office, Pakistan Navy (the interior Strait’s WWNWS issuer)","tier":"primary","cadence":"daily","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","observed":"369/26 (12 Oct 2026) — TOWING OPERATION NAVAREA IX 121500 UTC OCT 26","observedAsOf":"2026-10-12","links":[{"label":"issuer index","url":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/navarea-ix-warnings/"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:886b164ebf374ba6f9a9c87c81fc33ce54d2df09f64c7bbfa056d946a40a9cb0","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"observedRef":"369/26","observedDate":"12 Oct 2026","observedReadAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","discovery":{"root":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/","productPattern":"navarea[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*","textPattern":"\\b(\\d{1,4})\\s*/\\s*\\d{2}\\b","note":"NAVAREA IX warnings are printed as rows, not files, so discovery falls back to counting warning references in the page text. The row's own reader is still the referee."},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastReadRef":"369/26","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":1,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","issuer":"US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC","tier":"primary","cadence":"periodic / event-driven","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","observed":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED.","observedAsOf":"2024-05-08","links":[{"label":"NGA MSI broadcast warnings (JSON API)","url":"https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/broadcast-warn?status=active&output=json"}],"note":"Full source records (methods, samples, and the dead-ends we ruled out) publish as each fetcher ships.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastChange":null,"consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:ef93699cf872ec61f29f74575b522e6f477ea9d93d029794cf16a3f30fc4640f","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-11T09:47:09+00:00"},"scopeNote":"NGA issues NAVAREA IV, XII and HYDRO only; this covers the APPROACHES to the Strait, never its interior, which is NAVAREA IX (read separately above). Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.","observedRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","observedDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","observedReadAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastReadRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":888,"observedContentAgeNote":"Read successfully on 2026-10-13, but the advisory it names is dated 081538Z MAY 2024, 888 days old. The read is current; the operational picture it describes is not necessarily. Stated so age cannot be mistaken for freshness.","readState":"read","readStateNote":null}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set, not first-party operational data; verify at the source. Filtered for subject membership by the platform's one gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership); only the rows it cleared are served.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 7 attributable rows sampled for \"hormuz\", 5 served, 2 withheld (2 judged off-subject, 0 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":7,"served":5,"withheldNotEventRelevant":2,"withheldOffSubject":2,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","items":[{"title":"Saudi plans to expand oil export routes to cut Hormuz reliance","url":"https://www.semafor.com/article/10/12/2026/saudi-plans-to-expand-oil-export-routes-to-cut-hormuz-reliance","date":"2026-10-12","source":"Semafor","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Trump envoy kept financial ties to firm behind $15 billion Hormuz-bypass oil pipeline plan","url":"https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-911168","date":"2026-10-09","source":"Jerusalem Post","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Iran says Strait of Hormuz could reopen within a week as Tehran weighs US response","url":"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-911058","date":"2026-10-08","source":"Jerusalem Post","eventTerms":["hormuz","strait"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Oil prices jump on tanker attack and slowing flows through Strait of Hormuz","url":"https://www.ft.com/content/ec860f96-5a2b-461a-a897-a957860c3dba?syn-25a6b1a6=1","date":"2026-10-08","source":"Financial Times","eventTerms":["hormuz","strait"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Hormuz closure a fatal blow for Dubai and Abu Dhabi transhipment volumes","url":"https://theloadstar.com/hormuz-closure-a-fatal-blow-for-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-transhipment-volumes/","date":"2026-09-30","source":"The Loadstar","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":684,"outlets":161,"activeDays":45,"firstSeen":"2026-08-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-08-29","end":"2026-10-13","activeDays":45,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":3467,"outlets":257,"activeDays":67,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy","middle_east"],"asserts":{"military-action":461,"utterance":382,"meeting-visit":193,"sanction-trade":69,"price-threshold":59,"launch-release":41},"assertsUnit":"documents naming this subject anywhere in their text, counted by the action their headline asserts (a graph built before the headline-actor rule); a count of documents, not of events","assertionCoverage":0.395,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":2798,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":17,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":2368,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1043,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"middle east","together":1472,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"red sea","together":857,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1290,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"israel","together":1080,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":833,"sharedDomains":["energy"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","yemen","middle east","red sea","saudi arabia","israel","oil prices"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the strait's operational status","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-16,"reading":"Our coverage of Hormuz is 16% below its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.","trackedDays":154,"verticalCount":34,"signalCount":109,"verticals":["africa","agriculture-food","australia-economy","aviation","carbon-climate","cbdc","chinese-overcapacity","crypto-defi","defense-procurement","disaster-resilience","energy","europe-politics","frontier-model-race","germany-economy","global-elections-live","india-south-asia","intelligence-surveillance","iran-regime"]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.95,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"latent","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":14.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":41,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":34.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.55,"pricedAt":"2026-10-11","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-1-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":91.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-02","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"},{"question":"Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-may-31-822","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-06-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","questionCount":33,"mentions":6537,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null,"note":"\"Strait of Hormuz\" maintained since 2026-05-24; last priced 2026-10-13."}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — assembled from the layers above at build time; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-13","text":"We keep the layers apart and do not collapse them. Our attention on Hormuz stands 16% below its baseline and is steady. That measures our coverage, not the subject. The reporting layer is attributed outside coverage, and the consensus ledger speaks as of 2026-10-14 (producer last ran 2026-10-14). Each claim carries its date, and a dated layer is never read as today's news. The market layer prices 6 questions still open by their own deadline, beside 2 past their deadline and held as historical capture. A price is collective belief about defined outcomes, never proof. A system that read any single layer alone could answer wrongly in either direction; the maintained record keeps every layer in view. This is our judgment over the layers above, labeled as such."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement after syndication collapse; measures reporting agreement, never reality","schema":"sb.claims.v1","computedAt":"2026-10-14T06:53:55+00:00","checkedAt":"2026-10-14T06:53:55+00:00","method":"retroactive. Semantic-dome membership: 7526 kernel claim(s) and 1770 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright. Anchor diagnostic: 895 member claim(s)/frame(s) carry no anchor term — admitted by the relation graph (e.g. party + in-profile action). The anchor-term gate is diagnostic-only and excludes nothing.","pending":false,"pendingNote":null,"suppression":null,"corpus":"3448 articles archived by our sweeps between 2026-09-03 and 2026-10-14 — secondary press; this news ledger does not read primary feeds, which the record reads separately in its primary-source layer (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes, NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) with their own dates","limits":["Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality — a uniformly repeated error passes any count.","Chains are collapsed by syndication tracing; residual shared-upstream risk remains.","Retroactive: computed 2026-10-14 over the archive, not tracked live.","Receipt gate: 60 extracted claim(s) excluded — no receipt whose own text supports the claim (the extractor's row binding is verified mechanically, never trusted).","Disagreement pairing: 325 candidate pair(s) with overlapping words and different numbers were NOT shown as disagreements: 111 report separate incidents or readings (another named date or time, another vessel, or reported on another day), 129 assert different propositions (another party or quantity) and 85 could not be matched role for role. Two reports disagree here only when they give different values for the same actor, counterparty, quantity and incident: the same named date, or the same report day when no date is named.","Relative-anchor supersession: 1 claim(s) that described themselves as the most recent/last-known fact were retired because a claim from the SAME reporting thread, naming the same participants and the same measured quantity, describes a later instance of that subject — see 'retired'. Subject-matched, same-chain detection only: an anchor claim updated by a DIFFERENT outlet is not auto-retired, though its own firstSeen/lastSeen still render so a reader can judge its age.","Relative-anchor supersession: 6105 later same-thread claim(s) were NOT treated as replacing an anchored claim: 4112 are about different participants, a different measured quantity or a forecast, 1990 could not be read role for role or period for period, 0 compare against another time, 0 characterize or restate the same value and 3 report an earlier or the same period. A claim is replaced here only by a later report on the same participants and the same measured quantity, for a later period; every other pair keeps both claims standing.","Questions: 12 extracted sentence(s) were questions (a headline asking, e.g. \"Trump asked on TruthSocial 'When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?'\"), not assertions, and take no claim standing in any tier.","Literal-span counting (#1036): 455 extracted claim(s) were receipted by sentences that do not all assert the same proposition, and were split into 1077 separate claims, each counted only on the sources whose own sentence asserts it. Every count, disagreement and replacement here is decided on the sources' own words; the extractor's sentence is kept as a labelled paraphrase and decides nothing.","Domain-competence gate: 2240 kernel claim(s) and 322 frame(s) excluded — every supporting chain came from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains (aerospace_defense, auto, energy, europe_politics, india_south_asia, iran_regime, …). An outlet counts as competent when its measured home beat intersects the domains the subject's own corpus lives in; outlets with too few observations are never branded and always count.","Semantic-dome membership: 7526 kernel claim(s) and 1770 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright.","An item is published only when it is RECEIPTED: the outlet's own source link AND the source's exact words (verbatim: a literal span of the stored document, offsets into it, content-addressed by docId). The claim text is the extracted proposition and is never a quote. Anything else is UNRECEIPTED: retained, counted here by reason, never shown; every published count is computed from receipted items only.","Event grouping (event@2): 2448 claim(s) are source sentences; 259 were grouped into 107 multi-sentence event(s) and 1395 matched no other claim, giving 1502 event(s). 794 claim(s) could not be matched (untyped action class, no participant read, or no report day), so their count stays per sentence: could not match is not single source. The rule is mechanical and conservative (same typed action, shared participants and wording, no different named person or market, first seen within 1 day, no conflicting date, time, vessel, means (mine, missile, drone, boarding, gunfire) or value, every member matched to one anchor), so it under-groups: it measures reporting agreement about one incident, not verification."],"kernelClaims":[{"claim":"However, the process has since stalled, with Iran’s security chief saying Sunday that Washington’s response did not sufficiently address Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to negotiations.","claimVerbatim":{"text":"However, the process has since stalled, with Iran’s security chief saying Sunday that Washington’s response did not sufficiently address Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to 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Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","al-monitor.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-07","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"d0bcd51616ed","clusterKey":"d0bcd51616ed","claim":"Iran says Strait of Hormuz could reopen within a week as Tehran weighs US response","claimUrl":"https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-911058","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","jpost.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-08","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"df95049ae5a0","clusterKey":"df95049ae5a0","claim":"Attacks on tankers in Hormuz hit highest of any week since start of Iran war, sources say","claimUrl":"https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/attacks-tankers-hormuz-hit-highest-any-week-start-iran-war","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","middleeasteye.net"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-07","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"e7937b894dd6","clusterKey":"e7937b894dd6","claim":"11 Indian Seafarers Injured After Attack On Commercial Tanker In Strait of Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/a-dozen-seafarers-injured-in-strait-of-hormuz-tanker-attack-india-says/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Publishers carried this from two or three separate origins, under the same counting rule — agreement between sources, not verification of the facts. Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["gcaptain.com","marineinsight.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-07","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"2f04a7f4d41d","clusterKey":"2f04a7f4d41d","claim":"Brent Holds Above $100 as Hormuz Tanker Traffic Hits Two-Month Low","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Hormuz-Tanker-Traffic-Hits-Two-Month-Low-as-Attacks-Surge.html","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":1,"originCount":1,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["oilprice.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-08","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 1 publisher from 1 separate origin","marketLine":null},{"id":"8fcf5ec1e81c","clusterKey":"8fcf5ec1e81c","claim":"Tanker Attacks Spread Beyond the Strait of Hormuz as Gulf Freight Costs Soar","claimUrl":"https://windward.ai/blog/tanker-attacks-spread-beyond-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-gulf-freight-costs-soar/","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":1,"originCount":1,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["windward.ai"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-08","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 1 publisher from 1 separate origin","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — first-party operational issuers for the strait itself, verified by direct fetch","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-13","failingSince":null},"discipline":"Honest label: rows carry their verification date, not a live refresh, and they do not silently update. A stamp moves only on a confirmed verification, and each row says which date it speaks for. The live automation status of this layer is stated on the layer itself (the automation field), derived from the fetch-health records below, never asserted ahead of them.","sourceOfRecord":"qa/c3_jobs/hormuz-operational-sources/RESULTS.md (#387)","tripwirePair":{"sources":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"UKMTO/JMIC advisory notes plus NAVAREA IX navigational warnings are the layer-0 tripwire pair: both first-party, both refreshed within 1-3 days of verification, both carrying incident-level Strait state."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:26"},"sources":[{"id":"ukmto-jmic","name":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes","issuer":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)","tier":"primary","cadence":"~every 2–3 days","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","observed":"Update 103 (08 october)","observedAsOf":"2026-10-08","links":[{"label":"newest advisory (PDF)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-103-jmic-advisory-note-08-october.pdf"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-09T09:43:26+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"ba563cb6de484295ae3962ca0878df68","lastModified":"Thu, 08 Oct 2026 16:17:10 GMT","signature":"sha256:478b8a1657ba37802a437746f3868ef0141b03a5a71a70a20e83c24ad7353eb1","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"linkNote":"Not an index page. The issuer's advisory shelf assembles its list in the reader's browser and serves 'No products to display' to a fetcher (the crawl's own 2026-09-04 log reached the shelf and saw only footer PDFs), while each advisory is served directly under /-/media/ukmto/products/ as update-<n>-jmic-advisory-note-<dd>-<month>.pdf. This link is the newest advisory on record and it is a CURSOR, not a pin: the daily sequence probe (discovery.sequence, producer state in probeLog) walks the number forward every run and moves the link to whatever the issuer has published. Authored 2026-09-05 from search-indexed evidence, not from a fetch by the authoring session (the session VM has no egress); the daily run is the referee. History, never scrubbed: 2026-09-03 repointed the row to two shelf pages the crawl had fetched with 200, and both answered 404 on every fetch after; before that, update-073's own PDF (19 July), which re-fetching daily proved still existed and could never discover update 074.","discovery":{"root":"https://www.ukmto.org/","productPattern":"(?:update|advisor)[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*\\.pdf","note":"UKMTO publishes each JMIC advisory as a numbered PDF, so the index we want is whichever page links the most of them. Discovery runs only when the recorded links fail. Widened 2026-08-28 per the scout's productPattern-change verdict (#506/#536): the 2026-08-28 hunt saw 7 issuer PDFs, none matching the old update-<n>- shape, so the pattern now also accepts advisory-style names while still refusing the observed flyer/chart/BMP files. Safe to widen: discovery only NOMINATES; the row's own extractor must pull a real advisory reading before anything repoints (a wrong guess leaves the row unreadable, never wrongly read). If discovery finds the shelf and the reader still extracts nothing, the next fix class is the extractor's own filename pattern, with the found page as evidence. Sequence probe added 2026-09-05 (#506): the 2026-09-04 crawl's verdict named a productPattern fix, but the seven documents it saw are the shelf's footer charts/booklet/flyer, and the advisory list itself is rendered client-side, so no pattern can match a link the server never sends. The artifacts are served at a predictable media path, so discovery.sequence now walks the advisory number forward directly (every run, not only on failure); this crawl config stays as the fallback when the row's links fail.","sequence":{"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","start":82,"startDate":"2026-08-09","maxProbes":60,"maxGap":2,"note":"The newest advisory known when this was authored (2026-09-05): update-082, dated 09 August, at the path the template renders (search-indexed, not fetched by the authoring session). The walk probes {n}+1.. for each date from the cursor's date forward, accepts only a PDF body, refuses everything if a canary number (n+1000) resolves, and resumes from probeLog.probedThrough. maxGap 2 tolerates two numbers in the series belonging to other JMIC products; maxProbes 60 lets the first catch-up cover the weeks the row spent dead in about two runs. If tomorrow's probeLog shows the sample URLs 404ing, the convention or host moved (the footer PDFs live on sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/...), so change this template, not the crawl."}},"discoveryLog":{"found":false,"reachable":true,"pagesVisited":36,"visited":["https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/warnings","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products","https://www.ukmto.org/indian-ocean","https://www.ukmto.org/","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/weekly-reports","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/mievom-notes","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/industry","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/imo","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/initial-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/daily-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/final-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/incident-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/after-action-report","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/infonotes","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/weekly-dashboard","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-monthly-statistics","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/favicon.ico","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/94a11e200e1cebc1.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/b44f3e0dc3fff5a8.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/82fff4ee3068a208.css","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/footer-ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/about-us","https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents","https://www.ukmto.org/best-management-practices","https://www.ukmto.org/contact-us","https://www.ukmto.org/terms-and-conditions","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-main.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-border.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-text.svg","http://www.ukmto.org"],"pageBudget":40,"maxDepth":3,"candidatesProbed":9,"spilloverPages":15,"documentLinksSeen":7,"scriptedPages":27,"documentLinkSample":["https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/cmf/irta_mar-24.pdf?rev=f68a15866ace44c7ab3859b0b54ceb22","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/charts/q6099_low-res_ed11_2025.pdf?rev=8cbe027613764370a3fec7976a7abe19&amp;hash=C121A5BEFDE188DE15FD9AF3B54ACDA8","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/bmp/bmp-ms_hi-res_s.pdf?rev=2c338d856b0b4c169364b96766b12b27&amp;hash=8A19D49513D46613C44C7B51FC16F8D1","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-flyer-aug-2025.pdf?rev=e496e07a3da342b8bb89f268f21ad9a9","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-bridge-emergency-reference-cards---middle-east---digital---rev20dec2024.pdf?rev=c496f5a149b9480ab4cc13d8a1da4c06"],"note":"No page links or lists artifacts matching the product pattern, but the crawl DID see 7 document link(s) that do not match it (documentLinkSample). The issuer has likely renamed its files, so the fix is a productPattern change on the row's discovery config, not a URL swap and not a wider crawl.","at":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastReadRef":"Update 103","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"probeLog":{"found":false,"probes":13,"canary":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-1103-jmic-advisory-note-13-october.pdf","probeBudget":60,"maxGap":2,"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","highest":103,"highestDate":"2026-10-08","cursorUrl":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-103-jmic-advisory-note-08-october.pdf","advancedCount":0,"advanced":[],"candidates":[104,105,106],"exhausted":false,"sample":["https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-104-jmic-advisory-note-10-october.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-105-jmic-advisory-note-10-october.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-10-october.pdf"],"probedFrom":"2026-10-10","today":"2026-10-13","probedThrough":"2026-10-10","note":"No newer artifact than 103 (2026-10-08) answers this template for any date through 2026-10-13 (13 probe(s), sample in `sample`). If the issuer has published since, its naming changed, so the fix is the template, not a wider walk.","at":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00"},"observedRef":"Update 103","observedDate":"08 october","observedReadAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":5,"observedArtifact":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-103-jmic-advisory-note-08-october.pdf","readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"navarea-ix","name":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings","issuer":"National Hydrographic Office, Pakistan Navy (the interior Strait’s WWNWS issuer)","tier":"primary","cadence":"daily","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","observed":"369/26 (12 Oct 2026) — TOWING OPERATION NAVAREA IX 121500 UTC OCT 26","observedAsOf":"2026-10-12","links":[{"label":"issuer index","url":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/navarea-ix-warnings/"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:886b164ebf374ba6f9a9c87c81fc33ce54d2df09f64c7bbfa056d946a40a9cb0","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"observedRef":"369/26","observedDate":"12 Oct 2026","observedReadAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","discovery":{"root":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/","productPattern":"navarea[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*","textPattern":"\\b(\\d{1,4})\\s*/\\s*\\d{2}\\b","note":"NAVAREA IX warnings are printed as rows, not files, so discovery falls back to counting warning references in the page text. The row's own reader is still the referee."},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastReadRef":"369/26","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":1,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","issuer":"US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC","tier":"primary","cadence":"periodic / event-driven","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-13","observed":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED.","observedAsOf":"2024-05-08","links":[{"label":"NGA MSI broadcast warnings (JSON API)","url":"https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/broadcast-warn?status=active&output=json"}],"note":"Full source records (methods, samples, and the dead-ends we ruled out) publish as each fetcher ships.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastChange":null,"consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:ef93699cf872ec61f29f74575b522e6f477ea9d93d029794cf16a3f30fc4640f","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-11T09:47:09+00:00"},"scopeNote":"NGA issues NAVAREA IV, XII and HYDRO only; this covers the APPROACHES to the Strait, never its interior, which is NAVAREA IX (read separately above). Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.","observedRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","observedDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","observedReadAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00","lastReadRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":888,"observedContentAgeNote":"Read successfully on 2026-10-13, but the advisory it names is dated 081538Z MAY 2024, 888 days old. The read is current; the operational picture it describes is not necessarily. Stated so age cannot be mistaken for freshness.","readState":"read","readStateNote":null}],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"strait-of-hormuz","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":5,"entityCaptures":3,"served":8,"live":6,"expired":2,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-13","live":{"count":6,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-13","questions":["Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"]},"historical":{"count":2,"questions":["Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?"]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-14","reading":"6 of 8 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-14; newest live price seen 2026-10-13); 2 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"8 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 13, 2026: 6 still open by their own deadline, 2 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.95,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"latent","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":14.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-1-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":91.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-02","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":41,"pricedAt":"2026-10-13","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":34.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.55,"pricedAt":"2026-10-11","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-may-31-822","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-06-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Hormuz has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":684,"outlets":161,"activeDays":45,"firstSeen":"2026-08-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-08-29","end":"2026-10-13","activeDays":45,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":3467,"outlets":257,"activeDays":67,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy","middle_east"],"asserts":{"military-action":461,"utterance":382,"meeting-visit":193,"sanction-trade":69,"price-threshold":59,"launch-release":41},"assertsUnit":"documents naming this subject anywhere in their text, counted by the action their headline asserts (a graph built before the headline-actor rule); a count of documents, not of events","assertionCoverage":0.395,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":2798,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":17,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":2368,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1043,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"middle east","together":1472,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"red sea","together":857,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1290,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"israel","together":1080,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":833,"sharedDomains":["energy"]}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","yemen","middle east","red sea","saudi arabia","israel","oil prices"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the strait's operational status","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-16,"reading":"Our coverage of Hormuz is 16% below its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.","trackedDays":154,"verticalCount":34,"signalCount":109,"verticals":["africa","agriculture-food","australia-economy","aviation","carbon-climate","cbdc","chinese-overcapacity","crypto-defi","defense-procurement","disaster-resilience","energy","europe-politics","frontier-model-race","germany-economy","global-elections-live","india-south-asia","intelligence-surveillance","iran-regime"],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-13","firstParty":{"state":"measured","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 103, dated 08 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 369/26, dated 12 Oct 2026. Read from the issuer Oct 13, 2026."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":2,"rowCount":11,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":2,"reported-by-2":7,"single-source":2,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-07","end":"2026-10-13"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":"event","text":"The press archive's ladder is a different count: 1502 events over every date in the archive, not this window, 12 of them at three or more separate origins. It counts events, not the claims above."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026): 2 of 11 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 11 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 7 are reported by two separate origins and 2 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Saudi envoy says allied Yemeni forces capture Bab el Mandeb strait from Houthis: What to know” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 7, 2026); “US-Iran war: Yemen says 950 Houthis killed; Iran denies RAF Fairford plot, IRGC warns foreign powers off Strait of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 9, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},"singleSource":{"state":"measured","count":1436,"unit":"event","rule":"event@2","sentenceCount":2444,"text":"1436 of the 1502 events in this record's press archive (its 2448 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 794 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 14 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 12, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?” at 0.95% (polymarket, Oct 13, 2026), while our own record holds 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 11 claims in all: 7 are reported by two separate origins and 2 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"measured","rows":[{"name":"Corroboration & context","ageDays":888,"documentDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","ref":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024"}],"text":"Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"first-party document: Corroboration & context","why":"its latest document is 888 days old, past the 30-day window; held as provenance"},{"input":"9 further claim rows (of every standing)","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"2 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"first-party document","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes: Update 103","asOf":"2026-10-08","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings: 369/26","asOf":"2026-10-12","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-13T09:45:57+00:00"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Super oil tanker catches fire after hitting sea mine in Strait of Hormuz","asOf":"2026-10-11"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Saudi envoy says allied Yemeni forces capture Bab el Mandeb strait from Houthis: What to know","asOf":"2026-10-07"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"US-Iran war: Yemen says 950 Houthis killed; Iran denies RAF Fairford plot, IRGC warns foreign powers off Strait of Hormuz","asOf":"2026-10-09"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: 0.95% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-13"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"measured","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 103, dated 08 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 369/26, dated 12 Oct 2026. Read from the issuer Oct 13, 2026."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"measured","count":2,"rowCount":11,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":2,"reported-by-2":7,"single-source":2,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-07","end":"2026-10-13"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":"event","text":"The press archive's ladder is a different count: 1502 events over every date in the archive, not this window, 12 of them at three or more separate origins. It counts events, not the claims above."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026): 2 of 11 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 11 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 7, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 7 are reported by two separate origins and 2 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Saudi envoy says allied Yemeni forces capture Bab el Mandeb strait from Houthis: What to know” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 7, 2026); “US-Iran war: Yemen says 950 Houthis killed; Iran denies RAF Fairford plot, IRGC warns foreign powers off Strait of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 9, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"measured","count":1436,"unit":"event","rule":"event@2","sentenceCount":2444,"text":"1436 of the 1502 events in this record's press archive (its 2448 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 794 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 14 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 12, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?” at 0.95% (polymarket, Oct 13, 2026), while our own record holds 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 11 claims in all: 7 are reported by two separate origins and 2 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"measured","rows":[{"name":"Corroboration & context","ageDays":888,"documentDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","ref":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024"}],"text":"Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them."}],"states":{"firstParty":"measured","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"measured","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"measured"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":"2026-07-19T04:02:08.330742+00:00","note":"The ledger holds 14 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 12, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-10-06T14:59:38.550729+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-07T16:00:10.402859+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-06T14:59:38.550729+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-09T15:59:00.704884+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-07T16:00:10.402859+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-09T15:59:00.704884+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-07T16:00:10.402859+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-10T15:54:56.699691+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-09T15:59:00.704884+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-10T15:54:56.699691+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-09T15:59:00.704884+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-11T15:55:28.075824+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-10T15:54:56.699691+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-11T15:55:28.075824+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-10T15:54:56.699691+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-12T16:00:50.683506+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-11T15:55:28.075824+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-12T16:00:50.683506+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-11T15:55:28.075824+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/hormuz","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"hormuz\"}}}'","resource":"sb://exhibit/hormuz","page":"https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/","note":"This page, GET /api/record/hormuz and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading. One honest distinction: get_entity(\"hormuz\") returns the broader live entity dossier — a different, complementary object, not this record."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Hormuz has been scored"},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident."}],"standing":["The first-party maritime and government issuers behind this record are identified and verified — UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily. An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.","The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (139 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.","Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous."],"note":"2 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-13","generatedAt":"2026-10-13T23:28:00.899377+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-763ec9a3","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":{"name":"hormuz primary sources","status":"FRESH","ageHours":6,"limitHours":72,"owner":"hormuz-primary-sources.yml"},"slaNote":"We check the first-party sources at least every 72 hours; the last check found them current."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. 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