{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"russia-ukraine-war","title":"The Russia–Ukraine war record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"russia","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"russia\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Russia–Ukraine war\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hungary, putin, trump, zelenskyy — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["donbas","hungary","putin","russia","russia-ukraine","trump","ukraine","zelenskyy"],"alsoDefensible":["ukraine","russia-ukraine","donbas"],"rejected":["hungary","putin","trump","zelenskyy"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-10-06","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-10-04","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-06","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-04","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":2,"expectedCadenceDays":19,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 134-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-10-04, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 19 days.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-04","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":19,"gapDays":2,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfBasis":"the newest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline","computedAt":"2026-10-06","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-06","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-06T08:07:26.112210Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":null,"stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/russia-ukraine-war so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"russia\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 7 attributable rows for \"russia\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Russia–Ukraine war\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":7,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":7,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["ukraine","war","diplomacy","arms","crimea","donbas","donetsk","invasion","kharkiv","kremlin","kyiv","putin","ceasefire","forces","aid","front","peace","defense","ukrainian","zaporizhzhia","zelensky"],"questionSet":["agreement","december","qualifying","talks","place","turkey","switzerland","hungary","united","states"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":4400,"outlets":576,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-10-04","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":5047,"outlets":369,"activeDays":73,"since":"1993-12-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["europe_politics","auto"],"asserts":{"military-action":447,"utterance":393,"meeting-visit":285,"sanction-trade":219,"election":124,"launch-release":85},"assertionCoverage":0.365,"movesWith":[{"name":"ukraine","together":2512,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":30,"ceasefire-deal":12,"sanction-trade":12}},{"name":"europe","together":1419,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"]},{"name":"china","together":1898,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":8,"meeting-visit":4}},{"name":"france","together":927,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":7}},{"name":"trump","together":1413,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":16,"meeting-visit":10,"ceasefire-deal":7}},{"name":"germany","together":863,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":7}},{"name":"united states","together":1323,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"oil","together":1258,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":24,"meeting-visit":4}}],"movesWithLabels":["ukraine","europe","china","france","trump","germany","united states","oil"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":2144,"periods":[{"period":"2027-12","mentions":253},{"period":"2027-11","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-10","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-09","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-08","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-07","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":112},{"period":"2027-05","mentions":21}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"russia\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Russia–Ukraine war","slug":"russia-ukraine-war","questionCount":62,"questions":["Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?","Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?","Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027?","Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?","Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Hungary by December 31, 2027?","Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?"],"mentions":2144,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-06","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"russia\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Russia–Ukraine war\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hungary, putin, trump, zelenskyy — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-29T14:55:06.632575+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-29T14:55:06.632575+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"The world's largest country by area — a nuclear power and major oil-and-gas exporter.","whyTracked":"We hold 4400 documents from 576 outlets over 7 active days. It runs through 9 coverage domains we watch, including World Wires, AI Tech, US Politics. 62 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about russia.","576 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried from three or more separate origins","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-06"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1337,"corroborated":1,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":9,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":324,"originsPublished":324,"recordRows":4,"singleSource":1,"reportedByTwo":2,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":1,"reported-by-2":2,"single-source":1,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"4 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026: 1 carried from three or more separate origins, 2 reported by two, 1 from a single source. 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Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 6, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place-in-the-united-states-by-december-31-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":8.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place-in-turkey-by-december-31-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":23.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place-in-switzerland-by-december-31-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.9,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Hungary by December 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place-in-hungary-by-december-31-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.55,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-no-qualifying-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place-by-december-31-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":11,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-december-31-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":69,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Russia–Ukraine war has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":4400,"outlets":576,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-04","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-10-04","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":5047,"outlets":369,"activeDays":73,"since":"1993-12-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["europe_politics","auto"],"asserts":{"military-action":447,"utterance":393,"meeting-visit":285,"sanction-trade":219,"election":124,"launch-release":85},"assertionCoverage":0.365,"movesWith":[{"name":"ukraine","together":2512,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":30,"ceasefire-deal":12,"sanction-trade":12}},{"name":"europe","together":1419,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"]},{"name":"china","together":1898,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":8,"meeting-visit":4}},{"name":"france","together":927,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":7}},{"name":"trump","together":1413,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":16,"meeting-visit":10,"ceasefire-deal":7}},{"name":"germany","together":863,"sharedDomains":["auto","europe_politics"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":7}},{"name":"united states","together":1323,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"oil","together":1258,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":24,"meeting-visit":4}}],"movesWithLabels":["ukraine","europe","china","france","trump","germany","united states","oil"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":2144,"periods":[{"period":"2027-12","mentions":253},{"period":"2027-11","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-10","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-09","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-08","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-07","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":112},{"period":"2027-05","mentions":21}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-06","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":4,"text":"Separate sources agree on 4 things about Russia–Ukraine war in the current window: “Japan sanctions Garantex, freezing assets of exchange tied to $96B in crypto transactions” (carried by 6 publishers from 6 separate origins · 1 wire (AP), earliest Oct 1, 2026); “Macron slams Russia’s ‘irresponsible’ strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure” (carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins, earliest Oct 5, 2026), and 2 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Russia–Ukraine war, the most recent on Sep 29, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?” at 8.05% (polymarket, Oct 6, 2026), while our own record holds 4 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"2 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Japan sanctions Garantex, freezing assets of exchange tied to $96B in crypto transactions","asOf":"2026-10-01"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Macron slams Russia’s ‘irresponsible’ strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure","asOf":"2026-10-05"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Ukraine believes Russia shared jet-drone technology with North Korea, says Zelenskiy","asOf":"2026-10-04"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?: 8.05% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-06"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What separate sources agree on","state":"measured","count":4,"text":"Separate sources agree on 4 things about Russia–Ukraine war in the current window: “Japan sanctions Garantex, freezing assets of exchange tied to $96B in crypto transactions” (carried by 6 publishers from 6 separate origins · 1 wire (AP), earliest Oct 1, 2026); “Macron slams Russia’s ‘irresponsible’ strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure” (carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins, earliest Oct 5, 2026), and 2 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Russia–Ukraine war, the most recent on Sep 29, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?” at 8.05% (polymarket, Oct 6, 2026), while our own record holds 4 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Russia–Ukraine war, the most recent on Sep 29, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-29T14:55:06.632575+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-29T14:55:06.632575+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/russia-ukraine-war","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"russia-ukraine-war\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Russia–Ukraine war has"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-06","generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-c50b0f32","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"russia-ukraine-war","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Russia–Ukraine war","aliases":["arms for ukraine","crimea","donbas","donetsk","hungary","invasion of ukraine","kharkiv","kremlin","kyiv","putin","putin out","russia"],"eventKey":"russia-ukraine-war","entityKeys":["donbas","hungary","putin","russia","russia-ukraine","russia-ukraine-war","russia–ukraine war","trump","ukraine","zelenskyy"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["russia-ukraine-war"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Russia–Ukraine war is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (diplomacy). 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