{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"strait-of-hormuz","title":"The Strait of Hormuz record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hormuz","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hormuz\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Strait of Hormuz\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-10-06","currency":{"state":"cannot-measure","asOf":null,"sentence":"We cannot tell whether this record is current: the maintained record (lib/truth_records/<slug>.json) was not supplied to this builder, so its currency statement could not be read — UNKNOWN, never assumed current.","basis":{"recordSupplied":true,"pass":"the maintained record was supplied but carries no `currency` field — it predates the field or was built by an older generator"}},"generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/strait-of-hormuz and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/strait-of-hormuz so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hormuz\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 5 attributable rows sampled for \"hormuz\", 2 served, 3 withheld as not shown to be about \"Strait of Hormuz\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":5,"served":2,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["curated","close","traffic"],"questionSet":["charges","fees","december","united","kingdom","send","warships","through","least","ships","transit","day","october","shipping","targeted","trump","agree","iranian","may","between","average","daily","transits"]},"items":[{"title":"Fourteen commercial ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz in September","url":"https://tass.com/world/2197705","date":"2026-10-05","source":"ITAR-TASS","eventTerms":["ships","shipping"],"relevance":"question-set-terms","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Hormuz closure a fatal blow for Dubai and Abu Dhabi transhipment volumes","url":"https://theloadstar.com/hormuz-closure-a-fatal-blow-for-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-transhipment-volumes/","date":"2026-09-30","source":"The Loadstar","eventTerms":["close"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total","countsSource":null,"countsBasis":null,"documents":null,"outlets":null,"activeDays":null,"firstSeen":null,"firstSeenStatus":"cannot-measure","firstSeenNote":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total","lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"cannot-measure","lastSeenNote":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total","coverage":{"start":null,"end":null,"activeDays":null,"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total"},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2914,"outlets":236,"activeDays":61,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy"],"asserts":{"military-action":343,"utterance":317,"meeting-visit":183,"sanction-trade":62,"price-threshold":49,"launch-release":29},"assertionCoverage":0.38,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":2354,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":29,"ceasefire-deal":6,"sanction-trade":6}},{"name":"oil","together":1956,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"yemen","together":862,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"red sea","together":745,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":693,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":1286,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"middle east","together":1253},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1071,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","yemen","red sea","oil prices","trump","middle east","saudi arabia"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-18,"reading":"Our coverage of Strait of Hormuz is 18% below its 3-week baseline. 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Lead subject \"hormuz\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Strait of Hormuz\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-10-06T14:59:38.550729+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.","whyTracked":"It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including Arctic, Australia Economy, Aviation. 33 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":null,"status":"cannot-measure","text":"We hold no first-document date for this subject, so the record cannot say how far back its coverage runs. That is unmeasured, not zero."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hormuz.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.","No claim on this subject in the current window was carried from three or more separate origins, so nothing below rests on one."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","a claim carried from three or more separate origins"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","passed":false},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"no-cluster-joined","window":{"start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-06"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1337,"corroborated":690,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":9,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":324,"originsPublished":324},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":0,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"We looked and found none: of 60 events published from 690 corroborated clusters this window, not one names this subject. That is a count, not a gap.","singleSourceVisible":false,"rows":[]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"strait-of-hormuz","rowsFrom":"join","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":1,"served":7,"live":3,"expired":4,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-06","live":{"count":3,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-06","questions":["US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?"]},"historical":{"count":4,"questions":["Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?"]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-06","reading":"3 of 7 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-06; newest live price seen 2026-10-06); 4 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"7 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 6, 2026: 3 still open by their own deadline, 4 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":4.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","deadlineState":"live"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","deadlineState":"live"},{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":42.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","deadlineState":"live"},{"question":"Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/shipping-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-1-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":93.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-02","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","deadlineState":"historical"},{"question":"Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-transit-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.2,"pricedAt":"2026-05-31","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","deadlineState":"historical"},{"question":"Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-between-10-and-20-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-may-31-822","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-06-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","deadlineState":"historical"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":29,"change24hPct":13.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-09-07","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","venueStatus":null,"origin":"entity-capture","deadlineState":"historical"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Strait of Hormuz has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":null,"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total","countsSource":null,"countsBasis":null,"documents":null,"outlets":null,"activeDays":null,"firstSeen":null,"firstSeenStatus":"cannot-measure","firstSeenNote":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total","lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"cannot-measure","lastSeenNote":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total","coverage":{"start":null,"end":null,"activeDays":null,"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"the maintained record for this subject carries no counted observations (theRecord.state=absent), so this view can state no document, outlet or active-day total"},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2914,"outlets":236,"activeDays":61,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-06","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy"],"asserts":{"military-action":343,"utterance":317,"meeting-visit":183,"sanction-trade":62,"price-threshold":49,"launch-release":29},"assertionCoverage":0.38,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":2354,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":29,"ceasefire-deal":6,"sanction-trade":6}},{"name":"oil","together":1956,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"yemen","together":862,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"red sea","together":745,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":693,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":1286,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"middle east","together":1253},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":1071,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","yemen","red sea","oil prices","trump","middle east","saudi arabia"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-18,"reading":"Our coverage of Strait of Hormuz is 18% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":147,"eventMentions":5669,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":315},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":149},{"period":"2026","mentions":5205}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"fading","glyph":"↓"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-06","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":0,"text":"We looked and found none: of 60 events published from 690 corroborated clusters this window, not one names this subject. That is a count, not a gap."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Strait of Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 6, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?” at 12.5% (polymarket, Oct 6, 2026), while our own record holds no claim on this subject carried by three or more separate publishers in the window. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"4 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?: 12.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-06"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What separate sources agree on","state":"measured","count":0,"text":"We looked and found none: of 60 events published from 690 corroborated clusters this window, not one names this subject. That is a count, not a gap."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Strait of Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 6, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?” at 12.5% (polymarket, Oct 6, 2026), while our own record holds no claim on this subject carried by three or more separate publishers in the window. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Strait of Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 6, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-27T14:54:08.361516+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-01T14:56:26.495733+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-02T15:04:36.045022+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-10-06T14:59:38.550729+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-04T17:10:03.001059+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/strait-of-hormuz","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"strait-of-hormuz\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/strait-of-hormuz and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Strait of Hormuz has b"},{"section":"theRecord","text":"What we have collected: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 6, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-06","generatedAt":"2026-10-06T17:33:03.396507+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-9d6d0387","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record-alias.v1","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","kind":"alias","aliasOf":"hormuz","canonicalEventKey":"strait-of-hormuz","movedAt":"2026-10-06","reason":"`strait-of-hormuz` and `hormuz` are one event (`strait-of-hormuz`); the maintained record lives at `hormuz` and this address answers with it","verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/hormuz","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"hormuz\"}"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/strait-of-hormuz.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.truth.v1 view over it — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/record/strait-of-hormuz","mcpTool":"get_truth_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record-alias.v1","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","kind":"alias","aliasOf":"hormuz","canonicalEventKey":"strait-of-hormuz","movedAt":"2026-10-06","reason":"`strait-of-hormuz` and `hormuz` are one event (`strait-of-hormuz`); the maintained record lives at `hormuz` and this address answers with it","verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/hormuz","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"hormuz\"}"}},"responseLimits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}