{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"us-recession-2026","title":"The U.S. recession risk, 2026 record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":null,"bound":false,"basis":"unbound","statement":"We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 1 entity to \"U.S. recession risk, 2026\" (us economy), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-recession-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero.","candidatesConsidered":["us economy"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["us economy"],"actionClass":"econ-release"},"publishState":"not-enough-to-publish","publishStateNote":"Not enough to publish a subject-bound record. The event-level layers below (our coverage count and the crowd's question set for this event) are real and stated; the entity-derived layers are WITHHELD, not empty — we do not fill a gap with a neighbouring subject's evidence.","asOf":"2026-10-15","currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-13","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-15","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-13","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":32,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"no source declares a cadence this record can read and its own observed cadence could not be computed, so it is judged against the nightly rebuild — the tightest honest expectation","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-13, 32 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-09-13","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":32,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-09-13 (computed 2026-10-15), 32 days before this record's 2026-10-15 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-09-16","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-15","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":29,"note":"1 of 1 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-09-16, 29 days before this record's 2026-10-15 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-15","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-15T19:51:00.226353Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"reportingCounts","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","tracked":false,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/record/us-recession-2026 (earlier address /api/truth/us-recession-2026, still answers) and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/us-recession-2026 so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for SUBJECT MEMBERSHIP, not just the subject's name: \"null\" is the key its corpus was sampled on, so the name alone proves nothing about this event. Every row is judged by the platform's one membership gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership) when the record's data is built, and only the rows it cleared are served; each names the gate's basis in relevance and the terms it found in eventTerms.","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"withheldOffSubject":0,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":[],"questionSet":[],"gate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership"},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","status":"measured","state":"measured","reason":"","basis":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","documents":0,"outlets":0,"activeDays":null},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":262,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"}},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"unbound","rowsNote":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"U.S. recession risk, 2026","slug":"us-recession-2026","questionCount":2,"questions":["US recession by end of 2027?"],"mentions":262,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-15","text":"This record cannot state a subject-bound reading, and we say so rather than assembling one. We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 1 entity to \"U.S. recession risk, 2026\" (us economy), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-recession-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero. What stands is the event-level measurement: our own coverage count for \"U.S. recession risk, 2026\" and the 2 market questions the crowd prices under it. The entity-derived layers are withheld — an unmeasured layer and a measured zero must never look alike, so we label which one this is."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","transitions":[]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"unregistered","whatThisIs":"A subject on this platform's publication registry with no written definition yet. What follows is the shape of the record we keep on it, not a description of the thing itself.","whyTracked":"We hold 0 documents from 0 outlets over null active days. 2 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about us-recession-2026.","0 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.","No claim on this subject in the current window was carried from three or more separate origins, so nothing below rests on one."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","a claim carried from three or more separate origins"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no first-party issuer row is registered for this record, so no read was attempted","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: the corroboration join - no measured claims section","passed":false},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}]},"stateNote":"This subject has no written definition and no derived one; the record says so rather than composing a sentence about a thing nobody has defined."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"cannot-measure","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-10-09","end":"2026-10-15"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1478,"corroborated":0,"published":60,"questionExcluded":16,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":0,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":418,"originsPublished":418,"recordRows":0,"singleSource":0,"reportedByTwo":0,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":0,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"us-recession-2026","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":1,"entityCaptures":0,"served":1,"live":1,"expired":0,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-16","live":{"count":1,"priceAsOf":"2026-09-16","questions":["US recession by end of 2027?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-16","reading":"1 of 1 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-16; newest live price seen 2026-09-16). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"1 market question ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 16, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"US recession by end of 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":36.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-16","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to U.S. recession risk, 2026 has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","status":"measured","state":"measured","reason":"","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"],"documents":0,"outlets":0,"activeDays":null,"key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-13","activeDays":null,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"]},"basisNote":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero."},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":262,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"},"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-15","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"the press-claims ledger","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the change ledger","text":"Not yet read; date not on file."},"divergence":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"market sensor","text":"US recession by end of 2027?: 36.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-16"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"the press-claims ledger","examined":0,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the change ledger","text":"Not yet read; date not on file."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"cannot-measure","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"cannot-measure","divergence":"cannot-measure","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"cannot-measure","started":null,"note":"Not yet read; date not on file.","transitions":[]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/us-recession-2026","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"us-recession-2026\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/record/us-recession-2026 and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"claims","text":"What separate sources agree on: we could not measure it. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to U.S. recession risk, 2"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"changeLog","text":"What changed, and when: we could not measure it. Not yet read; date not on file."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.corroboratedNow","text":"How well the claims are supported: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroboration join. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the press-claims ledger. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build."},{"section":"ourRead.changedSinceLastRead","text":"What changed: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the change ledger. Not yet read; date not on file."},{"section":"ourRead.divergence","text":"The outside sensor, beside our record: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroborated set. Not yet read for Oct 15, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"11 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-15","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-7ca46e1b","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. Values are never reconciled, so a difference is shown as it is.","exhibitAsOf":"2026-10-15","recordAsOf":"2026-10-15","recordGeneratedAt":"2026-10-15T23:30:44.348573+00:00","recordVersion":"2a7ae48c903461c2","fields":[{"field":"currency.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"currency.state","value":"not-current","word":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-13"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.state","value":"not-current","word":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-13"},"scope":null},{"field":"primarySources.availability","agree":false,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.primarySources.status","value":"not-available","word":"absent","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.sectionStates.primaryDocuments.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":"2026-10-15"},"scope":{"kind":"same-fact-different-word","why":"Both say no first-party layer is registered for this subject. The exhibit calls it `absent` because no issuer is routed. The record calls it `cannot-measure` and gives the reason in sectionStates.primaryDocuments.reason. Neither side is changed to match the other."}},{"field":"consensus.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.consensus","value":"not-computed","word":"pending","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.consensusLedger","value":"not-computed","word":"no-ledger-layer","asOf":null},"scope":null},{"field":"refereeGrades.state","agree":false,"exhibit":{"path":"refereeGrades.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.sectionStates.refereeGrades.state","value":"never-published-on","word":"never-published-on","asOf":null},"scope":{"kind":"different-question","exhibit":"per-subject grades of the market prices we cite: the grading runs across every subject at once, so no grade for one subject exists to read","record":"the referee ledger's per-subject count of tracked probabilities and how many have been graded (the record's refereeGradesMeta.counts)","why":"The two answer different questions, and both say no grade exists for this subject. The record counts tracked rows and finds none graded; the exhibit says no per-subject grade can be read. Neither is restated as the other."}},{"field":"ourRead.contradicted.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"ourRead.contradicted.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.ourRead.contradicted.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"scope":null}],"unlabelled":0,"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_state_scope_parity.mjs fails the build when a row differs with no scope."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"us-recession-2026","kind":"event","subjectState":"dormant","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"U.S. recession risk, 2026","aliases":["economic recession","enter a recession","recession fears","recession in 2026","recession odds","recession risk","recession this year","u.s. recession risk, 2026","us economy","us recession","us-recession-2026"],"eventKey":"us-recession-2026","entityKeys":["u.s. recession risk, 2026","us economy","us-recession-2026"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["us-recession-2026"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"U.S. recession risk, 2026 is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (economic indicator).","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. 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The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, publisher and origin counts","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-13","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-15","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-13","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":32,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"no source declares a cadence this record can read and its own observed cadence could not be computed, so it is judged against the nightly rebuild — the tightest honest expectation","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-13, 32 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-09-13","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":32,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-09-13 (computed 2026-10-15), 32 days before this record's 2026-10-15 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-09-16","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-15","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":29,"note":"1 of 1 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-09-16, 29 days before this record's 2026-10-15 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-15","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-15T19:51:00.226353Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"reportingCounts","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-13","activeDays":null,"documents":0,"outlets":0},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-10-09","to":"2026-10-15"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":0,"total":0,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[],"claimsShown":0,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":0,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 0 document(s) over None active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-13; its 0 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-15 and include every agreement tier (0 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. 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Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":0,"outlets":0,"activeDays":null,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-13","assertionMix":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":0,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":0,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","assertion mix is computed per EVENT by the event graph; it does not carry this subject"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[],"corroboratedCount":0,"reportedByTwo":[],"reportedByTwoCount":0,"singleSource":[],"singleSourceCount":0,"cannotCheckCount":0,"countsIn":{"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-09","end":"2026-10-15"},"counts":["corroboratedCount","reportedByTwoCount","singleSourceCount","cannotCheckCount"]},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"comparablePairs":0,"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-10-15"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"US recession by end of 2027?","pricePct":36.5,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-16","deadline":"2027-12-31","collection":"live"},"corroboratedClaims":0,"text":"The crowd prices “US recession by end of 2027?” at 36.5% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-16), beside 0 claim(s) on this record carried from 3 or more separate origins. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, publisher and origin counts","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-13","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-15","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-13","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":32,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"no source declares a cadence this record can read and its own observed cadence could not be computed, so it is judged against the nightly rebuild — the tightest honest expectation","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-13, 32 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-09-13","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":32,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-09-13 (computed 2026-10-15), 32 days before this record's 2026-10-15 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-09-16","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-15","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":29,"note":"1 of 1 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-09-16, 29 days before this record's 2026-10-15 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-15","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-15T19:51:00.226353Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"reportingCounts","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-13","activeDays":null,"documents":0,"outlets":0},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-10-09","to":"2026-10-15"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":0,"total":0,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[],"claimsShown":0,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":0,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 0 document(s) over None active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-13; its 0 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-15 and include every agreement tier (0 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/us-recession-2026","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"us-recession-2026\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":"","dropped":0,"relevanceDropped":0,"relevanceUnmeasured":0,"questionExcluded":0,"cohesionExcluded":0,"note":"the corroboration engine was read for 2026-10-09..2026-10-15 and no cluster joined this subject — a reading, not a blind spot","fields":{"publisherCount":"Distinct publishers that carried the claim, after wire copies, republished copies and same-portal duplicates are collapsed.","originCount":"Separate origins after publishers behind one canonical address, and publishers relaying one named upstream, are collapsed into one (rule origins@2, which also counts a wire's own site and its tagged republications as that wire, and never counts an aggregator redirect that names no publisher). The tier and the state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when the count was not measured) are computed from it. Not dependency-aware evidentiary independence: an outlet that names no upstream still counts as its own origin.","originsUnknownUpstream":"How many counted origins had no readable text beyond a headline, so whether they relay someone else could not be checked.","originBasis":"The counting, in words, for this row.","deprecatedAliases":{"independentOrigins":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value: the separate origins whose upstream is known, the count the state stands on (null when not measured). Never larger than that count; before 2026-10-12 it carried the publisher count. Read knownOriginCount, publisherCount and originCount.","independentCount":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value (null when not measured) — not dependency-aware evidentiary independence. Read knownOriginCount and originCount.","independenceBasis":"DEPRECATED alias of originBasis, identical value.","independenceState":"DEPRECATED name for whether this row's counts were measured: measured or cannot-measure. originState says whether originCount was computed from origin chains."},"knownOriginCount":"Separate origins whose upstream is known: originCount minus originsUnknownUpstream. The state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when it was not measured) stands on this count; origins whose text could not be read are shown in originCount and never counted."}},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":"","counts":{"published":0,"graded":0},"note":"the referee ledger was read end to end; the house has never published a probability on this subject"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-10-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-12","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-12","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-11","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-11","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-06","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-06","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-05","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-05","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-04","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-04","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-03","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-02","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-01","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-01","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-30","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-29","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-28","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-27","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-10-15T23:30:44.348573+00:00","asOf":"2026-10-15","windowStart":"2026-10-09","windowEnd":"2026-10-15","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","sha":"fada786c6e154ffc"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T23:27:28.408719+00:00","sha":"cd49de80a7ac1f8e"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T20:48:14.851754+00:00","sha":"bfb1c2141002fd84"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"c07aaccc480cfbf4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-15","sha":"8c486a5ffc4d8258"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"bd3fd65ff9b0d953"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-15T19:51:00.226353Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"ba50438cf435c22d"}],"recordVersion":"2a7ae48c903461c2"}},"responseLimits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page (kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5), and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}