{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"ai-model-race","title":"The AI model race record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"ai","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"ai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"The AI model race\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: china — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["ai","anthropic","china","deepseek","openai"],"alsoDefensible":["anthropic","deepseek","openai"],"rejected":["china"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-31","generatedAt":"2026-08-31T23:47:10.184789+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/ai-model-race and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/ai-model-race so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"ai\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 10 attributable rows sampled for \"ai\", 4 served, 6 withheld as not shown to be about \"The AI model race\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":10,"served":4,"withheldNotEventRelevant":6,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["model","curated","benchmark","anthropic","leapfrog","chatgpt","claude","fable","deepseek","frontier","gemini","gpt","large","language","release","openai","weights"],"questionSet":["announces","achieved","agi","december","best","end","launch","consumer","hardware","product","released","debut","score","least","1500"]},"items":[{"title":"Anthropic Expands Enterprise AI Arsenal With Autonomous Tools Ahead Of Widely Expected IPO - Stocktwits","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3gFBVV95cUxQYzBTVFhtYVNkNUMtcWZYYkV2VUhGcEV6WTB6N2htWnFJN3dibGYyUU1TOU0yUy1EWEhpampTc0c1ZWk5b3Z2a1o3b0NBTFFQenNrdkppQ3N3U0RFY3kzSElRR0xVbER3YmtRTkVIU0VldV9GSnlfbG96Zm5ORWpuU295Z1VFVE9yVnB5VlR0VDA1SlNyT1ZGdG5fTXl3VGktWVdLemMzS3NrdXU0NUJRTk05ZWZUQzRjZ1ZNSEVZOGc1RVVRQ1M1cmVkZDRkSGhxZDVFSXZKb3VFLW8yT0E?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["anthropic"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Anthropic Launches Browser-Operating AI to General Availability, Commits to Autonomous Execution Without Approval - finance.biggo.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTE5kZEpnaEpKSTE4Y1JoUXRQRk9yTEtXUGlmMXlKUzhoaUl3azIzYkNKNDhrUTN5YnBUZjZoZDdseTdBSWhNWlU1OWFJcVBWa1JyZ3VrRXVpZFpvbzlSZlpRVS1zc3h2ajJBUXo5Qkh0cTdrU2lFWEE?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["anthropic"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Sarvam Champions: Indian AI startup to give creators early access to new AI models - Business Today","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_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?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["model"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"OpenAI and rival AI labs are buying tens of thousands of Mac minis to train computer-use agents","url":"https://the-decoder.com/openai-and-rival-ai-labs-are-buying-tens-of-thousands-of-mac-minis-to-train-computer-use-agents/","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["openai"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":6153,"outlets":665,"activeDays":172,"firstSeen":"2026-03-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":null,"lastSeenStatus":"withheld-future-dated","lastSeenNote":"unmeasured — the lastSeen stamp on this subject read 2026-11-01, which is after today (2026-09-01). A document we have not reached yet cannot be one we have seen, so the stamp is withheld rather than clamped: a clamped date would be a fabricated observation. The cause is a forward-dated publisher field (a grant's period-of-performance start, a journal's ahead-of-print issue date) reaching our \"when we saw it\" axis. This is neither a real date nor a measured zero.","homeDomains":["auto","ai_investing"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.173,"movesWith":[{"name":"openai","together":922,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":3}},{"name":"anthropic","together":804,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":8}},{"name":"google","together":645,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"china","together":621,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":5}},{"name":"nvidia","together":581,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3,"acquisition":2}},{"name":"data center","together":508,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"abstract","together":429,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"microsoft","together":394,"sharedDomains":["auto"]}],"movesWithLabels":["openai","anthropic","google","china","nvidia","data center","abstract","microsoft"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-36,"reading":"Our coverage of The AI model race is 36% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":114,"eventMentions":20997,"periods":[{"period":"2028","mentions":10},{"period":"2027-12","mentions":905},{"period":"2027-11","mentions":6},{"period":"2027-10","mentions":6},{"period":"2027-09","mentions":44},{"period":"2027-08","mentions":6},{"period":"2027-07","mentions":6},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":85}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"ai\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"The AI model race","slug":"ai-model-race","questionCount":87,"questions":["OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?","Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?","Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?","Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?"],"mentions":20997,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-30","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-31","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"ai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"The AI model race\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: china — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-25T15:15:51.750926+00:00"}]}}}