{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"ceasefire-peace-iran","title":"The Ceasefire & peace talks: Iran record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"iran","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"iran\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Ceasefire & peace talks: Iran\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["iran"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"ceasefire-deal"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-31","generatedAt":"2026-08-31T23:47:10.184789+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/ceasefire-peace-iran and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/ceasefire-peace-iran so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"iran\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 13 attributable rows for \"iran\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Ceasefire & peace talks: Iran\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":13,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":13,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["ceasefire","peace","talks"],"questionSet":["permanent","august","against","continues","through","continue","may"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":1703,"outlets":283,"activeDays":96,"firstSeen":"2026-03-13","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-31","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":[],"asserts":{"utterance":230,"sanction-trade":159,"military-action":114,"meeting-visit":58,"launch-release":21,"election":12},"assertionCoverage":0.39,"movesWith":[{"name":"trump","together":553,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":22,"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"oil","together":517,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":16,"meeting-visit":4,"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"china","together":451,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":21}},{"name":"hormuz","together":415,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":7,"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"israel","together":397,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"russia","together":334},{"name":"united states","together":333},{"name":"middle east","together":285,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":2}}],"movesWithLabels":["trump","oil","china","hormuz","israel","russia","united states","middle east"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":68,"reading":"Our coverage of Ceasefire & peace talks: Iran is 68% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":113,"eventMentions":440,"periods":[{"period":"2026-08","mentions":61},{"period":"2026","mentions":379}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"iran\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Ceasefire & peace talks: Iran","slug":"ceasefire-peace-iran","questionCount":17,"questions":["US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?","US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?","Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?"],"mentions":440,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-19","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-31","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"iran\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Ceasefire & peace talks: Iran\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"iran\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}}}