{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane\"). It was preferred over atlantic because it carries this record's own action class (disaster) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["atlantic","hurricane"],"alsoDefensible":["atlantic"],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-31","generatedAt":"2026-08-31T23:47:10.184789+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hurricane\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 11 attributable rows sampled for \"hurricane\", 1 served, 10 withheld as not shown to be about \"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":11,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":10,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster","atlantic"],"questionSet":["first","form","between","august","name","cristobal","dolly","edouard"]},"items":[{"title":"Remembering Hurricane Katrina, 21 years after one of America’s worst natural disasters devastated New Orleans","url":"https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/21-years-since-hurricane-katrina-forever-scarred-new-orleans","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["disaster"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":388,"outlets":57,"activeDays":24,"firstSeen":"2026-01-26","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-30","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":124,"launch-release":6,"utterance":6,"military-action":3,"sports-outcome":3,"acquisition":2},"assertionCoverage":0.376,"movesWith":[{"name":"national hurricane center","together":114,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic","together":100,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"tropical storm dolly","together":73,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"miami","together":64,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"noaa","together":46,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":41,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"dolly","together":39,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"florida","together":65}],"movesWithLabels":["national hurricane center","atlantic","tropical storm dolly","miami","noaa","hawaii","dolly","florida"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-22,"reading":"Our coverage of Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane is 22% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":89,"eventMentions":270,"periods":[{"period":"2026-08","mentions":45},{"period":"2026","mentions":225}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-tropical-storm-lala-make-landfall-in-hawaii-as-a-hurricane-1786718341036","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":14,"change24hPct":-18.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260728201848339","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":48,"change24hPct":32,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-23","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-before-2027-20260721182828397","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":68,"change24hPct":30,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-14","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-during-the-2026-hurricane-season","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":5,"change24hPct":-41.4,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-21","deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","questionCount":16,"questions":["Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 13 and August 16, 2026?","Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?","Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Edouard?"],"mentions":270,"firstSeen":"2026-07-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-13","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-31","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane\"). It was preferred over atlantic because it carries this record's own action class (disaster) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"}]}}}