{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry — WITH a first-party primary-source layer attached (layer 0 below names the issuing authorities and the exact documents this platform reads). Still standard, and here is the honest gap: no reporting-consensus ledger has been computed for this subject, and layer 0 is machine-fetched rather than backed by a hand-verified source-of-record audit like the full-tier records carry.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, florida, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["alabama","florida","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["alabama","florida","hawaii","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-08-31","generatedAt":"2026-08-31T23:47:10.184789+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — the first-party issuing authorities for this subject, read from their own machine-readable feeds. A reader can fetch the same document and check this row against it.","verifiedAsOf":"2026-08-31","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-08-31","failingSince":null},"verificationMethod":"Automated fetch of each issuer's own machine-readable feed, on a runner with egress (scripts/refresh_hurricane_sources.py). NOT hand-verified: no human confirmed these values, so every row states its own read state and the record claims nothing beyond it. A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-08-31","observed":"No active tropical cyclones (2026-08-31) — There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:35:32 GMT","observedAsOf":"2026-08-31","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastChange":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"126c-65a5486516e9a\"","lastModified":"Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:35:37 GMT","signature":"sha256:2680dc40b980d9959a315d0a8e9f2ed210feab5f58c85f6904dae26f7158b490","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical cyclones","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical cyclones","observedDate":"2026-08-31","observedReadAt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-08-31","observed":"...KARINA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... (2026-08-31) — Hurricane Karina; max sustained winds 145 mph; min central pressure 942 mb; movement W at 9 mph; center 17.2, -124.4","observedAsOf":"2026-08-31","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastChange":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"48fb-65a5486516e8e\"","lastModified":"Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:35:37 GMT","signature":"sha256:acddb6195528c66005781744ce7ab4d4b26d7dde384db2c3f35c8422e4f9b97c","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastReadRef":"...KARINA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...KARINA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...","observedDate":"2026-08-31","observedReadAt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-08-31","observed":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-08-31) — The National Weather Service active-alerts query for hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings returned no active alerts. An empty result from a query endpoint is an answer, not a failed read.","observedAsOf":"2026-08-31","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastChange":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"W/\"979b344d341e3007c4bde4bbd2c6986b\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:3180400c46d4d4fb792c79133272681853204f686869099119785523d9007624","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-08-31","observedReadAt":"2026-08-31T09:37:26+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hurricane\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 11 attributable rows sampled for \"hurricane\", 1 served, 10 withheld as not shown to be about \"Disaster: Hurricane\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":11,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":10,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster"],"questionSet":["landfall","hawaii","texas","november","louisiana","mississippi","alabama","florida"]},"items":[{"title":"Remembering Hurricane Katrina, 21 years after one of America’s worst natural disasters devastated New Orleans","url":"https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/21-years-since-hurricane-katrina-forever-scarred-new-orleans","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["disaster"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":388,"outlets":57,"activeDays":24,"firstSeen":"2026-01-26","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-30","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":124,"launch-release":6,"utterance":6,"military-action":3,"sports-outcome":3,"acquisition":2},"assertionCoverage":0.376,"movesWith":[{"name":"national hurricane center","together":114,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic","together":100,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"tropical storm dolly","together":73,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"miami","together":64,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"noaa","together":46,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":41,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"dolly","together":39,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"florida","together":65}],"movesWithLabels":["national hurricane center","atlantic","tropical storm dolly","miami","noaa","hawaii","dolly","florida"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-22,"reading":"Our coverage of Disaster: Hurricane is 22% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":89,"eventMentions":759,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":9},{"period":"2026-11","mentions":100},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":80},{"period":"2026","mentions":570}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-tropical-storm-lala-make-landfall-in-hawaii-as-a-hurricane-1786718341036","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":14,"change24hPct":-18.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260728201848339","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":48,"change24hPct":32,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-23","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-before-2027-20260721182828397","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":68,"change24hPct":30,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-14","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-during-the-2026-hurricane-season","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":5,"change24hPct":-41.4,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-21","deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","questionCount":34,"questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?"],"mentions":759,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-29","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-31","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, florida, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: layer 0 carries 3 first-party issuers read from their own feeds, each stating the date it speaks for; the reporting-consensus ledger is what this record still lacks against a full-tier one."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-26T15:13:20.917747+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"}]}}}