{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-democratic-party-michigan","title":"The Election: Democratic Party & Michigan record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"michigan","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"michigan\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Democratic Party & Michigan\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: senate — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["democratic party","michigan","senate"],"alsoDefensible":["democratic party"],"rejected":["senate"],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-01","generatedAt":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-democratic-party-michigan and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-democratic-party-michigan so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"michigan\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 10 attributable rows sampled for \"michigan\", 1 served, 9 withheld as not shown to be about \"Election: Democratic Party & Michigan\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":10,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":9,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election","democratic","party"],"questionSet":["candidate","senate","gubernatorial"]},"items":[{"title":"JD Vance Called Michigan Senate Candidate Abdul El-Sayed ‘Evil’ in Speech","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/us/politics/vance-el-sayed-michigan-speech.html","date":"2026-09-01","source":"NYT > Top Stories","eventTerms":["candidate","senate"],"relevance":"question-set-terms","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":236,"outlets":108,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-03-31","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-01","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":[],"asserts":{"sports-outcome":12,"utterance":8,"launch-release":7,"legal-ruling":5,"election":5,"sanction-trade":4},"assertionCoverage":0.225,"movesWith":[{"name":"pennsylvania","together":38},{"name":"ai","together":35},{"name":"trump","together":34},{"name":"ohio","together":33},{"name":"texas","together":33},{"name":"florida","together":31},{"name":"jersey","together":31},{"name":"arizona","together":30}],"movesWithLabels":["pennsylvania","ai","trump","ohio","texas","florida","jersey","arizona"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":3,"eventMentions":36,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":36}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"michigan\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Democratic Party & Michigan","slug":"election-democratic-party-michigan","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?","Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?","Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?","Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election by 18% or more?"],"mentions":36,"firstSeen":"2026-08-08","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-12","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-01","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"michigan\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Democratic Party & Michigan\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: senate — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"new","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T04:58:44.769155+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T04:58:44.769155+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"new","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"}]}}}