{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-lebanon","title":"The Election: Lebanon record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"lebanon","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"lebanon\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Lebanon\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["lebanon"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-01","generatedAt":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-lebanon and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-lebanon so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"lebanon\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 3 attributable rows for \"lebanon\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Lebanon\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":3,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["forces","seats","parliamentary"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":128,"outlets":49,"activeDays":22,"firstSeen":"2026-04-07","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-31","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["middle_east","turkey"],"asserts":{"utterance":18,"military-action":13,"meeting-visit":6,"sanction-trade":3,"regulatory-approval":2,"launch-release":2},"assertionCoverage":0.391,"movesWith":[{"name":"israel","together":94,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"iran","together":72,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"syria","together":36,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"gaza","together":33,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"hezbollah","together":30,"sharedDomains":["middle_east","turkey"]},{"name":"turkish","together":25,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]},{"name":"middle east","together":24,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":21,"sharedDomains":["turkey"]}],"movesWithLabels":["israel","iran","syria","gaza","hezbollah","turkish","middle east","saudi arabia"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":232,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":232}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-join-the-mecca-agreement-by-december-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":62,"change24hPct":56.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-27","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260810145737299","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":6,"change24hPct":-58,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-12","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Lebanon","slug":"election-lebanon","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?"],"mentions":232,"firstSeen":"2026-07-03","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-07-23","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-01","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"lebanon\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Lebanon\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-18T15:06:56.513447+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-29T16:01:54.942135+00:00"}]}}}