{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-ontario","title":"The Election: Ontario record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"ontario","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"ontario\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Ontario\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["ontario"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-01","generatedAt":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-ontario and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-ontario so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"ontario\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 3 attributable rows for \"ontario\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Ontario\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":3,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["andrea","horwath","hamilton","mayoral","navdeep","bains","liberal","party"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":126,"outlets":55,"activeDays":19,"firstSeen":"2026-03-27","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-08-31","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"homeDomains":["canada"],"asserts":{"sanction-trade":22,"launch-release":6,"utterance":5,"acquisition":3,"sports-outcome":2,"econ-release":1},"assertionCoverage":0.333,"movesWith":[{"name":"canadian","together":90,"sharedDomains":["canada"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":5}},{"name":"carney","together":30,"sharedDomains":["canada"]},{"name":"trump","together":64,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":5}},{"name":"tariffs","together":50,"verbs":{"sanction-trade":8}},{"name":"canadians","together":21,"sharedDomains":["canada"]},{"name":"toronto","together":21,"sharedDomains":["canada"]},{"name":"ford","together":29},{"name":"united states","together":29}],"movesWithLabels":["canadian","carney","trump","tariffs","canadians","toronto","ford","united states"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":29,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":29}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Trump renames Lake Ontario to \"Lake America\" in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-renames-lake-ontario-to-lake-america-in-2026","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":99,"change24hPct":77,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-27","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to \"Lake America\" in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/google-maps-renames-lake-ontario-to-lake-america-in-2026","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":86,"change24hPct":66,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-27","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Ontario","slug":"election-ontario","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Andrea Horwath win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?","Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?"],"mentions":29,"firstSeen":"2026-08-11","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-08-31","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-01","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"ontario\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Ontario\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"new","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T04:58:44.769155+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T04:58:44.769155+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"new","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-30T15:08:25.442508+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-01T15:11:18.454578+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-31T15:05:22.273998+00:00"}]}}}