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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Recession

A sustained contraction in economic activity, commonly marked by two straight quarters of shrinking output.

Coverage of Recession is rising : 8 signals on the latest tracked day, up 100% from its three-week baseline of 4, across 7 domains (up from 3 a week ago). That makes it the #318 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Recession matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 60 tracked stories from 29 outlets, reporting on Recession most often describes economic releases (9), legal rulings (2), sanctions or trade (2), elections (1), acquisition (1), public statements (1).

It shows up alongside Inflation (16), Treasury (10), Tariffs (9), AI (8), China (8), Interest Rates (8), Nasdaq (8), Housing (10).

Two steps out: Central Bank (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link); CPI (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link); Federal Reserve (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through Inflation, 16 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 19, with coverage on 21 separate days — concentrated in Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Recession + Track Recession for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 20 – Sep 1, 10 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 1, 9:32 AM PT