Skip to content
Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Tariffs

Taxes a government charges on imported goods, used to protect domestic industry or as trade leverage.

Coverage of Tariffs is holding steady : 38 signals on the latest tracked day, up 73% from its three-week baseline of 22, across 20 domains (down from 27 a week ago). That makes it the #65 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

Tariffs is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 22 signals a day across 20 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 28+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 20. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Geopolitics Desk.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 700 tracked stories from 160 outlets, reporting on Tariffs most often describes sanctions or trade (336), public statements (37), meetings or visits (14), launches or releases (10), IPOs or listings (5), rate decisions (5).

It shows up alongside China (161 — sanctions or trade ×31), Canadian (311 — sanctions or trade ×173), Trump (302 — sanctions or trade ×101), AI (83), Inflation (73 — sanctions or trade ×4), United States (146), President Donald Trump (106), Immigration (98 — sanctions or trade ×2).

Two steps out: Iran (through Trump, 302 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through Trump, 302 shared stories on the weaker link); White House (through Trump, 280 shared stories on the weaker link); Treasury (through Trump, 266 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 25, with coverage on 54 separate days — concentrated in Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?” fell 3 points between Aug 24 and Aug 31, from 55% to 52%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Tariffs + Track Tariffs for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:31 PM PT