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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Unemployment

The share of the labor force without work; a core gauge of economic health.

Coverage of Unemployment is rising : 29 signals on the latest tracked day, up 314% from its three-week baseline of 7, across 6 domains (down from 7 a week ago). That makes it the #91 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Unemployment matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 200 tracked stories from 71 outlets, reporting on Unemployment most often describes economic releases (35), rate decisions (9), public statements (8), military action (4), meetings or visits (3), price levels (3).

It shows up alongside Inflation (67), AI (63), Federal Reserve (45), Interest Rates (37), GDP (32), India (30), Kevin Warsh (26), Treasury (21).

Two steps out: CPI (through Inflation, 67 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through Inflation, 67 shared stories on the weaker link); Middle East (through Inflation, 67 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through Inflation, 67 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 6, with coverage on 24 separate days — concentrated in Auto and India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?” fell 2 points between Jul 22 and Sep 5, from 7% to 5%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 24 – Sep 5, 28 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 5, 10:11 AM PT