The claims the Hormuz record holds now, each with where it came from.
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A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?
What the record holds now
Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.
Strait of Hormuz
From the reporting ledger · newest report 6 Oct 2026
The ledger holds 1,755 claims about the strait: 23 corroborated, 90 reported by two, 1,642 single source. 38 claims sit beside another report that gives a different answer. Both are kept. The newest of the best-supported are below.
No new claim carried by three or more separate reports since 27 Sep.
First reported 27 Sep
RAF Fairford has been used by the US to strike Iran.
●●● Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 2 outlets · last seen 28 Sep
1 more report not shown: no source link or exact wording on file⊣ kept in the claims ledger; a report is drawn here once it carries both its source link and the source's exact words
First reported 27 Sep
The British government authorized the US to use RAF Fairford to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
2 more reports not shown: no source link or exact wording on file⊣ kept in the claims ledger; a report is drawn here once it carries both its source link and the source's exact words
First reported 26 Sep
Trump posted an image on Truth Social showing the Strait of Hormuz rebranded as the 'Trump Strait.'
●●● Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · last seen 27 Sep
1 more report not shown: no source link or exact wording on file⊣ kept in the claims ledger; a report is drawn here once it carries both its source link and the source's exact words
First reported 6 Oct
An inbound tanker around 11 nautical miles north of Khasab was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ordered to turn around or face attack.
●●○ Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets
From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?” was priced at 12.5% when last seen (2026-10-06). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.
Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
Reports that give different answers
38 claims sit beside another report that gives a different answer. Both are kept. The newest:
First reported 5 Oct
The U.S. approved a possible sale of Javelin missile systems to Egypt at an estimated cost of $832 million.
≠ Contested
Another report says: The U.S. approved a possible sale of Patriot missile repair and return services to Kuwait at an estimated cost of $400 million.
When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.
From the Hormuz reporting ledger
Said on 5 Sept 2026: Under the latest proposal, Tehran would be able to intervene if necessary with any inbound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while outbound traffic would follow a route between Iran and Oman with exit clearance granted through Oman after notifying Iran.
Replaced 6 Oct 2026 by: A proposed deal between Iran and Oman would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why: A later report in the same thread replaced it. The first claim stays on the record, marked replaced. The ledger keeps 107 replaced claims this way.
GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)
{
"ledger": {
"computedAt": "2026-10-06T12:51:04+00:00",
"newestSeen": "2026-10-06",
"counts": {
"kernel": 1755,
"frames": 464,
"retired": 116,
"corroborated": 23,
"two": 90,
"single": 1642,
"disputed": 38
}
},
"viewpoints": [
{
"viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
"asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
"sortedReading": {
"state": "cannot-measure",
"reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
}
},
{
"viewpoint": "Energy desk",
"asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
"sortedReading": {
"state": "cannot-measure",
"reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
}
},
{
"viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
"asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
"sortedReading": {
"state": "cannot-measure",
"reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
}
}
]
}
The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.
GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level
{
"claim": "RAF Fairford has been used by the US to strike Iran.",
"status": "corroborated",
"independentChains": 3,
"whereFrom": {
"level": "where from",
"label": "Where from",
"relations": [
{
"role": "part of",
"members": [
"/event/hormuz/",
"/record/"
]
}
],
"children": [
{
"level": "report",
"label": "Al-Monitor · first seen 27 Sep",
"children": {
"count": 1,
"unfold": "expand=+1"
}
},
{
"level": "report",
"label": "France 24 · first seen 27 Sep",
"children": {
"count": 1,
"unfold": "expand=+1"
}
},
{
"level": "report",
"label": "Al-Monitor · first seen 28 Sep",
"children": {
"count": 1,
"unfold": "expand=+1"
}
},
{
"level": "not shown",
"label": "1 more report not shown: no source link or exact wording on file",
"edge": "kept in the claims ledger; a report is drawn here once it carries both its source link and the source's exact words"
}
]
}
}
The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.