Strait of Hormuz
Traffic is down about a third on the week. The threat level is unchanged. One boarding report is contested.
- Matters now2
Transits fell to 31 on Tuesday, from 44 a week earlier
Matters now: States a change in traffic through the strait
reportLloyd's List · 30 Sep example row: no source captured, so the trail stops herereportWindward · 30 Sep example row: no source captured, so the trail stops herereportKpler · 30 Sep example row: no source captured, so the trail stops hereReported by 3 outletsstate-change:transitsUKMTO keeps the threat level at Substantial (advisory 100)
Matters now: Primary maritime authority, no change
reportUKMTO JMIC · 27 Sep example row: no source captured, so the trail stops herePrimary sourceauthority:no-change
- Worth knowing1
Waiting time at Fujairah anchorage up to about 2.5 days
Worth knowing: Affects the route, not the strait itself
reportGulf News · 30 Sep example row: no source captured, so the trail stops hereOne report so faradjacent:route
- Unclear2
Tanker stopped near Khor Fakkan
Unclear: Sources give different answers
Reuters: boarded by unidentified personnelUAE coast guard: routine inspection, releasedboarded by unidentified personnel
sourcesource example row: no source captured, so the trail stops hereroutine inspection, released
sourcesource example row: no source captured, so the trail stops hereOutlets disagreedifferent-answersWar-risk premiums “up sharply”
Unclear: No figure given; the strait is implied, not named
reportOne broker note · 29 Sep example row: no source captured, so the trail stops hereOne report so farsubject-implicit
Market sensor, from the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?” was priced at 57.5% when last seen (2026-10-03). Cited as a market price, not our estimate.
Set aside · 3 examples, each with why
- Trade remarks by Donald Trump on China. Shares a name with Hormuz stories, not the strait
- Kyiv drone strike coverage. Different region
- Gold price commentary. No link to shipping in the strait