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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

India

The world's most populous country — a nuclear power and fast-growing major economy.

Coverage of India is rising : 97 signals on the latest tracked day, up 111% from its three-week baseline of 46, across 20 domains (down from 26 a week ago). That makes it the #17 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If India matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,150 tracked stories from 182 outlets, reporting on India most often describes disaster (53), meetings or visits (46), launches or releases (36), public statements (34), military action (24), sanctions or trade (19).

It shows up alongside Delhi (150), Modi (116), China (226 — meetings or visits ×6), Congress (102), Nepal (83), Nifty (69), Sensex (67), AI (127 — meetings or visits ×4).

Two steps out: Iran (through China, 226 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through China, 226 shared stories on the weaker link); Trump (through China, 226 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through China, 226 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 53 separate days — concentrated in India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?” fell 2 points between Jul 17 and Aug 24, from 14% to 12%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 28 – Aug 31, 35 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:32 PM PT