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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Oil

Crude oil; the world's most-traded commodity, setting the base cost of fuel, transport, and industry.

Coverage of Oil is rising : 77 signals on the latest tracked day, up 157% from its three-week baseline of 30, across 23 domains (down from 24 a week ago). That makes it the #22 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Oil matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,199 tracked stories from 207 outlets, reporting on Oil most often describes public statements (88), sanctions or trade (84), military action (48), meetings or visits (35), launches or releases (25), economic releases (18).

It shows up alongside Hormuz (338 — meetings or visits ×3), Iran (517 — sanctions or trade ×16, meetings or visits ×4, ceasefire or deal ×3), Trump (316 — ceasefire or deal ×3, sanctions or trade ×3), China (224 — sanctions or trade ×4), United States (220), Treasury (200), Middle East (187), Israel (165).

Two steps out: Russia (through Iran, 334 shared stories on the weaker link); President Donald Trump (through Trump, 316 shared stories on the weaker link); Tariffs (through Trump, 302 shared stories on the weaker link); White House (through Trump, 280 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Sep 26, with coverage on 74 separate days — concentrated in Energy.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?” fell 66 points between Jul 25 and Aug 31, from 70% to 4%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:32 PM PT