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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Climate

The long-term pattern of global temperatures and weather; shorthand for climate change and the policy response to it.

Coverage of Climate is holding steady : 20 signals on the latest tracked day, up 18% from its three-week baseline of 17, across 12 domains (down from 17 a week ago). That makes it the #142 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

Climate is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 17 signals a day across 12 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 22+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 12. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Energy Desk.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

It shows up alongside AI (97), China (69), United States (67), Earth (65), Wildfire (64), Renewable Energy (62), Iceland (57), European Union (56).

Two steps out: Abstract (through AI, 97 shared stories on the weaker link); Anthropic (through AI, 97 shared stories on the weaker link); Computer Science (through AI, 97 shared stories on the weaker link); Data Center (through AI, 97 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 25, with coverage on 43 separate days — concentrated in Carbon Climate.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by December 31, 2026?” fell 14 points between Aug 20 and Aug 25, from 24% to 10%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Climate + Track Climate for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:31 PM PT