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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Iran

A major Middle Eastern state whose oil, nuclear program, and regional proxies keep it central to Gulf security.

Coverage of Iran is rising : 208 signals on the latest tracked day, up 87% from its three-week baseline of 111, across 26 domains (down from 35 a week ago). That makes it the #3 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Iran matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,703 tracked stories from 283 outlets, reporting on Iran most often describes public statements (230), sanctions or trade (159), military action (114), meetings or visits (58), launches or releases (21), elections (12).

It shows up alongside Trump (553 — sanctions or trade ×22, ceasefire or deal ×3), Oil (517 — sanctions or trade ×16, meetings or visits ×4, ceasefire or deal ×3), China (451 — sanctions or trade ×21), Hormuz (415 — sanctions or trade ×7, meetings or visits ×3), Israel (397 — meetings or visits ×2), Russia (334), United States (333), Middle East (285 — sanctions or trade ×2).

Two steps out: President Donald Trump (through Trump, 553 shared stories on the weaker link); AI (through China, 451 shared stories on the weaker link); Gaza (through Israel, 397 shared stories on the weaker link); Ukraine (through Russia, 334 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 13, with coverage on 96 separate days.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” fell 12 points between Jul 17 and Aug 31, from 28% to 16%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:32 PM PT