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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Gaza

A Palestinian coastal territory bordering Israel and Egypt; the center of repeated Israel–Hamas wars.

Coverage of Gaza is holding steady : 54 signals on the latest tracked day, down 29% from its three-week baseline of 76, across 5 domains (down from 9 a week ago). That makes it the #2 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran below the three-week baseline — a sustained cooling, not a one-day dip.

What the reporting says

Across 520 tracked stories from 42 outlets, reporting on Gaza most often describes ceasefire or deal (135), military action (58), public statements (43), elections (12), meetings or visits (8), sanctions or trade (7).

It shows up alongside Israel (465 — ceasefire or deal ×126, meetings or visits ×2, sanctions or trade ×2), West Bank (107 — ceasefire or deal ×2), Netanyahu (86), Palestine (75), Middle East (113 — ceasefire or deal ×29), Jerusalem (55), Turkey (60 — ceasefire or deal ×5), Turkish (57 — ceasefire or deal ×3).

Two steps out: Iran (through Israel, 397 shared stories on the weaker link); Trump (through Israel, 240 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through Israel, 203 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through Israel, 165 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Jul 28, with coverage on 15 separate days — concentrated in Middle East and Turkey.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?” rose 2 points between Aug 3 and Aug 19, from 8% to 10%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:33 PM PT