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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.

Coverage of Hormuz is fading : 26 signals on the latest tracked day, down 52% from its three-week baseline of 54, across 10 domains (down from 14 a week ago). That makes it the #104 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

If Hormuz matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran below the three-week baseline — a sustained cooling, not a one-day dip.

What the reporting says

Across 553 tracked stories from 116 outlets, reporting on Hormuz most often describes public statements (81), sanctions or trade (53), military action (30), meetings or visits (22), price levels (5), ceasefire or deal (3).

It shows up alongside Oil (338 — meetings or visits ×3), Oman (133 — meetings or visits ×2), Iran (415 — sanctions or trade ×7, meetings or visits ×3), Trump (215 — sanctions or trade ×2), Bessent (80), United States (159), Israel (155), Middle East (152).

Two steps out: China (through Iran, 415 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Iran, 334 shared stories on the weaker link); President Donald Trump (through Iran, 253 shared stories on the weaker link); Treasury (through Iran, 253 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 47 separate days — concentrated in Iran Regime and Energy.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” fell 24 points between Jul 17 and Aug 31, from 52% to 28%.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? 28% Yes Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? view Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? 11% Yes
Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:32 PM PT