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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Hurricane

A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.

Coverage of Hurricane is holding steady : 36 signals on the latest tracked day, up 38% from its three-week baseline of 26, across 7 domains (up from 3 a week ago). That makes it the #74 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

Hurricane is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 26 signals a day across 7 domains (45 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 33+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 7. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 388 tracked stories from 57 outlets, reporting on Hurricane most often describes disaster (124), launches or releases (6), public statements (6), military action (3), sporting outcomes (3), acquisition (2).

It shows up alongside National Hurricane Center (114), Atlantic (100), Tropical Storm Dolly (73), Miami (64), Noaa (46), Hawaii (41), Dolly (39), Florida (65).

Two steps out: AI (through Florida, 65 shared stories on the weaker link); NASA (through Florida, 65 shared stories on the weaker link); SpaceX (through Florida, 65 shared stories on the weaker link); Texas (through Florida, 65 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Jan 26, with coverage on 24 separate days — concentrated in Extreme Weather and Weather Climate.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?” fell 8 points between Aug 1 and Aug 20, from 24% to 16%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Hurricane + Track Hurricane for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:32 PM PT