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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Indonesia

A topic on our watch list — we track its coverage across 4 domains, including Microplastics, ASU Surveillance and Platform Tech.

Coverage of Indonesia is holding steady : 17 signals on the latest tracked day, up 89% from its three-week baseline of 9, across 8 domains (unchanged from a week ago). That makes it the #7 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 297 tracked stories from 84 outlets, reporting on Indonesia most often describes disaster (112), public statements (6), meetings or visits (6), sanctions or trade (5), launches or releases (3), regulatory approvals (2).

It shows up alongside Earthquake (107), China (59), Malaysia (39), Jakarta (36), Japan (36), Singapore (34), India (33), Australia (31).

Two steps out: Iceland (through Earthquake, 107 shared stories on the weaker link); M5 2 (through Earthquake, 107 shared stories on the weaker link); Philippines (through Earthquake, 93 shared stories on the weaker link); AI (through China, 59 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 8, with coverage on 65 separate days — concentrated in Geophysical.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?” rose 3 points between Jul 23 and Aug 26, from 8% to 11%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 29 – Aug 31, 34 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:33 PM PT