Public record

The Hormuz record

A sourced, current record of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. Every claim shows who reported it and when. When sources disagree, you see both. “Current” means maintained, not live: the record states how fresh it is, one date per reading.

Sources through 15 Oct; the issuing-authority documents through 8 Oct; the market sensor through 6 Oct.

How well each of the 1,567 events in this record is supported. The ledger holds 2,542 sentences; the event rule groups the sentences that report one event, and 1,720 of them make these 1,567 events. One bar per standing; its length is the number of events.
  • Corroborated12
  • Reported by two57
  • Single source1,498

Not in the bars: 822 sentences the event rule could not place. Each counts on its own sources and is never folded into “Single source”.

No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. See where reports differ.

GET https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/hormuz

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The live endpoint returns the full record. Shown here: its sections and their states, and the where-from tree folded below the first level, computed from the same files at build.

What separate sources agree on

We count a story once, however many outlets reprint it.

No new claim carried by three or more separate reports since 12 Oct.

  • First reported 12 Oct

    Attacks on commercial shipping are spreading across the Gulf region, with two Indian seafarers missing after a drone struck a tanker off Oman on Sunday and another tanker hit by a projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 8 Oct

    A number of casualties have been reported after a tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has announced.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 8 Oct

    Iranian attacks on tankers hit their highest level last week of any week since the U.S.-Iran war began, with the increased offensive coming shortly after shipping through Hormuz briefly touched pre-war levels in September.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 5 outlets · 1 more carries the same wire story · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 29 Sep

    As presented by Araghchi, the plan calls for a seven-day cessation of hostilities across the region, including Lebanon; the release of at least $12bn in frozen Iranian assets; the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil; and an end to the US naval blockade.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 4 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 27 Sep

    Earlier on Saturday, President Donald Trump rejected a truce deal proposed by Iran that Tehran said could have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within a week.

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

Every claim in the archive (2,542 sentences): show them

Headlines several outlets carried this week

Each is a publisher’s headline, quoted, not a claim we extracted. “Where from” opens the article.

10 headlines about Hormuz carried by several outlets between 9 Oct 2026 and 15 Oct 2026: 5 corroborated, 3 reported by two, 2 single source. This counts publishers, not truth. Many outlets repeating one official statement is still one statement.

  • First reported 14 Oct

    Headline, bbc.co.uk: “Singapore-Flagged Container Ship Carrying Over 2,500 Containers Sinks In Strait Of Hormuz”

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 5 outlets

  • First reported 14 Oct

    Headline, oilprice.com: “Container ship sinks near strait of Hormuz amid surge in Iranian attacks”

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets

  • First reported 11 Oct

    Headline, tehrantimes.com: “Super oil tanker catches fire after hitting sea mine in Strait of Hormuz”

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets

The other 7: show them
  • First reported 9 Oct

    Headline, tehrantimes.com: “US-Iran war: Yemen says 950 Houthis killed; Iran denies RAF Fairford plot, IRGC warns foreign powers off Strait of Hormuz”

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets

  • First reported 14 Oct

    Headline, euronews.com: “Oil prices rise after reported Iranian attacks on ships in Strait of Hormuz”

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets

  • First reported 9 Oct

    Headline, jpost.com: “Trump envoy kept financial ties to firm behind $15 billion Hormuz-bypass oil pipeline plan”

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets

  • First reported 14 Oct

    Headline, aljazeera.com: “Failure to activate Hormuz fertilizer plan could trigger food crisis, UN official says”

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets

  • First reported 14 Oct

    Headline, news.google.com: “Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks”

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets

  • First reported 13 Oct

    Headline, oilprice.com: “Pakistan Faces Winter Gas Shortages if Hormuz LNG Remains Choked”

    Single source

  • First reported 11 Oct

    Headline, news.google.com: “Iran says it will reply to US response on Hormuz proposal once review over”

    Single source

Where reports differ

No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident.

What the issuing authorities publish

observed · documents from the issuing authority itself, read Oct 16

First-party operational issuers for the strait itself, re-read by an automated daily fetch. Each row leads with what the issuer said and the date that reading speaks for, never a blended “as of today.” An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing.

  • 15 Oct

    UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes

    UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) · ~every 2–3 days

    Update 105 (15 october)

    Read from the issuer Oct 16.

  • 26 Mar

    NAVAREA IX navigational warnings

    National Hydrographic Office, Pakistan Navy (the interior Strait’s WWNWS issuer) · daily

    Latest document on this channel, 378/26, is dated 26 MARINE.

    show the warning as issued

    378/26 (26 MARINE) — BATHYMETRIC SURVEY CENTRAL GULF QATAR 152015 UTC OCT 2026

    Read from the issuer Oct 16.

  • 8 May

    Corroboration & context

    US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC · periodic / event-driven

    Latest document on this channel, NAVAREA P 1540/2024, is dated May 2024.

    show the warning as issued

    NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED.

    Read from the issuer Oct 16.

    NGA issues NAVAREA IV, XII and HYDRO only; this covers the APPROACHES to the Strait, never its interior, which is NAVAREA IX (read separately above). Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.

What markets price

Belief, not fact. We quote the venues as a sensor and publish no probability of our own. How that sensor has scored.

8 market questions in all; every one, with its deadline and lineage, is in “How we count”.

How we countThe method in full: the record’s date, the press archive’s limits, every market question, and how to check it yourself.Show the method Hide the method

We count a story once, however many outlets reprint it. Below is the method in full: what this record is, its date, the press archive’s scope and limits, our own coverage measurements, every market question, our read, and how to verify all of it yourself.

The record’s date

Sources through 15 Oct; the issuing-authority documents through 8 Oct; the market sensor through 6 Oct.

What this record is

written · Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary.

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.

Why we keep a record on it. We hold 720 documents from 166 outlets over 45 active days. It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including Africa, African Economy, Arctic. 33 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it. Our first document on this subject is dated Aug 31, 2026; the count above is everything since.

What it is not. Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hormuz. 166 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet. Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.

How complete this record is: full. It meets 3 of 3 conditions: a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself; a claim carried from three or more separate origins; at least one market question bound to this record.

The press archive: scope, frames and limits

What outside reporting says

measured · attributed sources

What outside reporting in our tracked set says about the strait itself. Attributed, not first-party operational data. Every row carries the date we captured it, or says plainly that the date was not recorded.

The press archive, claim by claim

measured · who/what/when/where claims counted across independent reporting, computed 2026-10-16

Computed Oct 16; last re-checked Oct 16. Each claim below carries its own first-seen date.

Scope, first: 3636 articles archived by our sweeps between 2026-08-25 and 2026-10-16 — secondary press; this news ledger does not read primary feeds, which the record reads separately in its primary-source layer (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes, NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) with their own dates. Everything below speaks for that archive only. What the press corpus agrees on is counted honestly: claims of who, what, when and where, scored by how many independent reporting chains assert them; syndication is collapsed first, so forty echoes of one wire story count once. Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality. The “why” is frame, not fact: listed with its chain, never averaged.

A receipt links the archived article where we read the claim, often a roundup, so a receipt’s own headline subject can differ from the claim it carries. That is what the corpus held, shown as held. The claims carried by the most separate reports lead the page above, each unfolding to the outlets and their exact words; all 2,542 sentences are listed there, folded.

The frames: how different outlets explain it

Attributed, never averaged; divergence here is signal, not noise. The 3 with the most separate articles unfold below.

Every frame (666): show them

  • Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality — a uniformly repeated error passes any count.
  • Chains are collapsed by syndication tracing; residual shared-upstream risk remains.
  • Retroactive: computed 2026-10-16 over the archive, not tracked live.
  • Receipt gate: 61 extracted claim(s) excluded — no receipt whose own text supports the claim (the extractor's row binding is verified mechanically, never trusted).
  • Disagreement pairing: 361 candidate pair(s) with overlapping words and different numbers were NOT shown as disagreements: 118 report separate incidents or readings (another named date or time, another vessel, or reported on another day), 145 assert different propositions (another party or quantity) and 98 could not be matched role for role. Two reports disagree here only when they give different values for the same actor, counterparty, quantity and incident: the same named date, or the same report day when no date is named.
  • Relative-anchor supersession: 2 claim(s) that described themselves as the most recent/last-known fact were retired because a claim from the SAME reporting thread, naming the same participants and the same measured quantity, describes a later instance of that subject — see 'retired'. Subject-matched, same-chain detection only: an anchor claim updated by a DIFFERENT outlet is not auto-retired, though its own firstSeen/lastSeen still render so a reader can judge its age.
  • Relative-anchor supersession: 6806 later same-thread claim(s) were NOT treated as replacing an anchored claim: 4730 are about different participants, a different measured quantity or a forecast, 2073 could not be read role for role or period for period, 0 compare against another time, 0 characterize or restate the same value and 3 report an earlier or the same period. A claim is replaced here only by a later report on the same participants and the same measured quantity, for a later period; every other pair keeps both claims standing.
  • Questions: 12 extracted sentence(s) were questions (a headline asking, e.g. "Trump asked on TruthSocial 'When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?'"), not assertions, and take no claim standing in any tier.
  • Literal-span counting (#1036): 418 extracted claim(s) were receipted by sentences that do not all assert the same proposition, and were split into 983 separate claims, each counted only on the sources whose own sentence asserts it. Every count, disagreement and replacement here is decided on the sources' own words; the extractor's sentence is kept as a labelled paraphrase and decides nothing.
  • Domain-competence gate: 2499 kernel claim(s) and 350 frame(s) excluded — every supporting chain came from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains (aerospace_defense, auto, energy, europe_politics, india_south_asia, iran_regime, …). An outlet counts as competent when its measured home beat intersects the domains the subject's own corpus lives in; outlets with too few observations are never branded and always count.
  • Semantic-dome membership: 7818 kernel claim(s) and 1834 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright.
  • An item is published only when it is RECEIPTED: the outlet's own source link AND the source's exact words (verbatim: a literal span of the stored document, offsets into it, content-addressed by docId). The claim text is the extracted proposition and is never a quote. Anything else is UNRECEIPTED: retained, counted here by reason, never shown; every published count is computed from receipted items only.
  • Event grouping (event@2): 2542 claim(s) are source sentences; 264 were grouped into 111 multi-sentence event(s) and 1456 matched no other claim, giving 1567 event(s). 822 claim(s) could not be matched (untyped action class, no participant read, or no report day), so their count stays per sentence: could not match is not single source. The rule is mechanical and conservative (same typed action, shared participants and wording, no different named person or market, first seen within 1 day, no conflicting date, time, vessel, means (mine, missile, drone, boarding, gunfire) or value, every member matched to one anchor), so it under-groups: it measures reporting agreement about one incident, not verification.
Withdrawn claims (11): show the record

A row that fails a later audit is withdrawn on the record (the claim as published, the reason, the date), never silently deleted. If you read one of these rows here before, this is where it went.

  • Oct 16

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via Oil Price

    However, the remaining unhedged 20% is highly exposed to the jet fuel prices currently trading at about $140 per barrel, Ryanair said in its August 2026 traffic stats.

    Why: superseded: this claim anchors itself as the most recent known fact (last seen 2026-09-03), but a claim from the SAME reporting thread about the same participants and the same measured quantity, "Ryanair is one of the most hedged airlines, with about 80% of fuel costs hedged at $67 per barrel." (last seen 2026-09-03), reports a later period of the same subject, and is not a comparison, an elaboration or an earlier period. Same-chain, subject-matched only (#e02ae00b, #992, #1009); an update carried by a different outlet is not auto-detected..

  • Oct 16

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via Hindustan Times Business

    Brent futures rose 2.1 per cent to $106.49 a barrel, bringing gains so far this month to almost 18%, while US crude futures added 1.5% to $93.84 a barrel.

    Why: superseded: this claim anchors itself as the most recent known fact (last seen 2026-09-28), but a claim from the SAME reporting thread about the same participants and the same measured quantity, "Some 4 million barrels daily of that goes south to U.S. refineries." (last seen 2026-10-13), reports a later period of the same subject, and is not a comparison, an elaboration or an earlier period. Same-chain, subject-matched only (#e02ae00b, #992, #1009); an update carried by a different outlet is not auto-detected..

  • Oct 2

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via AP News

    Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz.

    Why: no domain-competent chain: every published chain (AP News) comes from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Oct 2

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via AP News

    An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead.

    Why: no domain-competent chain: every published chain (AP News) comes from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Oct 2

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via AP News

    One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz.

    Why: no domain-competent chain: every published chain (AP News) comes from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Oct 2

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via AP News

    Iran plans to announce a new exclusion zone near the Strait of Hormuz.

    Why: no domain-competent chain: every published chain (AP News) comes from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Aug 29

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported by two sources that did not copy each other · via Inman News, BiggerPockets Blog

    The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding.

    Why: no domain-competent chain: every published chain (BiggerPockets Blog, Inman News) comes from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Aug 29

    Withdrawn · kernel fact · as published: reported once, by one source · via BiggerPockets Blog

    The Strait of Hormuz represents 20 percent of the world's oil.

    Why: no domain-competent chain: every published chain (BiggerPockets Blog) comes from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Aug 29

    Withdrawn · frame · as published: via inman

    Financial markets have reacted positively to developments in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

    Why: no domain-competent attribution: every attributed origin (inman) is an outlet confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Aug 29

    Withdrawn · frame · as published: via inman

    Investors celebrated the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

    Why: no domain-competent attribution: every attributed origin (inman) is an outlet confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

  • Aug 29

    Withdrawn · frame · as published: via realtor.com

    The oil price decline reflects the signed memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, hopefully marking the beginning of the end of the war that closed the straits of Hormuz.

    Why: no domain-competent attribution: every attributed origin (realtor.com) is an outlet confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains.

2 · Our coverage

Our coverage

What our own machinery collected and how closely it is watching. These are measurements of our attention, not of the strait.

What we have collected

measured · our own count of documents we ingested and can name

  • Documents

    720

    From 166 outlets. Documents arrived on 45 days between 31 Aug 2026 and 15 Oct 2026. Market questions are not counted, because a question is not reporting.

  • Coverage window

    31 Aug 2026

    Most recent document 2026-10-15. Our own count, not a claim about the world.

  • Moves with

    iran · oil · middle east · red sea · saudi arabia

    Subjects this record co-occurs with in our corpus, by document count: association, not causation.

How closely we are watching

measured · how closely we are watching: our attention, not the strait

  • Our coverage regime

    rising

    Our coverage of Hormuz is 30% above its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.

  • Days with an attention reading

    156 days

    Our attention series holds a daily reading for Hormuz on 156 days. In the latest collection (15 Oct 2026), 164 signals in 35 of our coverage areas mention it. That count is scoped to this record; it is not the number of areas we read in total.

  • Market questions on the event

    33

    The Strait of Hormuz event has carried 33 market questions since 24 May 2026, last priced 15 Oct 2026. The 8 listed under market expectation below are the ones bound to this record.

What changed, and when

measured

The ledger holds 12 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 15, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. The ledger began recording 2026-07-19; states before that date were tracked but not yet ledgered, and we say so rather than backfilling.

  • 4 Oct

    Front-page listing: changed from on watch to flagged

    observed Oct 4, 10:10 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 2, 8:04 AM PT

  • 6 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from steady to falling

    observed Oct 6, 7:59 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 4, 10:10 AM PT

  • 7 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from falling to rising

    observed Oct 7, 9:00 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 6, 7:59 AM PT

  • 9 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from rising to too little history to judge

    observed Oct 9, 8:59 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 7, 9:00 AM PT

  • 9 Oct

    Front-page listing: changed from flagged to on watch

    observed Oct 9, 8:59 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 7, 9:00 AM PT

  • 10 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from too little history to judge to steady

    observed Oct 10, 8:54 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 9, 8:59 AM PT

  • 10 Oct

    Front-page listing: changed from on watch to flagged

    observed Oct 10, 8:54 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 9, 8:59 AM PT

  • 11 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from steady to too little history to judge

    observed Oct 11, 8:55 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 10, 8:54 AM PT

  • 11 Oct

    Front-page listing: changed from flagged to on watch

    observed Oct 11, 8:55 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 10, 8:54 AM PT

  • 12 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from too little history to judge to steady

    observed Oct 12, 9:00 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 11, 8:55 AM PT

  • 12 Oct

    Front-page listing: changed from on watch to flagged

    observed Oct 12, 9:00 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 11, 8:55 AM PT

  • 15 Oct

    How closely we watch: changed from steady to rising

    observed Oct 15, 9:01 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 12, 9:00 AM PT

3 · Market expectation

Market expectation

What prediction markets price: belief, not fact, and never proof that something happened. We cite the venues as a sensor and publish no probability of our own.

What prediction markets price

measured · 5 questions from the event’s own venue record, 3 questions captured from the venue ourselves

8 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 15, 2026: 5 still open by their own deadline, 2 past it and kept as recorded, 1 with no deadline on file. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours. Our public grading of that sensor, those prices scored against how reality resolved, is how we keep it honest.

5 of 8 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-16; newest live price seen 2026-10-15); 2 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation; 1 state no deadline we could read and are not counted as open. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.

Still open by their own deadline

Past their deadline, kept as recorded (final resolution at the venue)

  • 99.5%

    Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?

    market price 99.5% (priced 2026-10-14) · Polymarket · belief, not fact · deadline 2026-10-02 passed: historical capture, final resolution at the venue

  • 0.1%

    Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

    market price 0.1% (priced 2026-06-02) · Polymarket · belief, not fact · deadline 2026-05-31 passed: historical capture, final resolution at the venue

No deadline we could read, not counted as open

How our cited sensor has scored

not yet read · the pass that failed: the per-subject accuracy check

We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Hormuz has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.

Our read

our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours · as of 2026-10-15

No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.

  • measured

    What the issuing authorities say

    UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 105, dated 15 october. Read from the issuer Oct 16, 2026.

  • measured

    How well the claims are supported

    Of 10 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 9, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026), 2 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 5 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Singapore-Flagged Container Ship Carrying Over 2,500 Containers Sinks In Strait Of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 4 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 14, 2026); “US-Iran war: Yemen says 950 Houthis killed; Iran denies RAF Fairford plot, IRGC warns foreign powers off Strait of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 9, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive.

  • measured

    What rests on one source

    1498 of the 1567 events in this record's press archive (its 2542 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 822 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration.

  • not yet read

    What contradicts

    No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident.

  • measured

    What changed

    The ledger holds 12 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 15, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions.

  • measured

    The outside sensor, beside our record

    Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026?” at 76.5% (polymarket, Oct 15, 2026), while our own record holds 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 10 claims in all: 5 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record.

  • measured

    Earlier documents on file

    Earlier documents on file: NAVAREA IX navigational warnings, latest dated 26 MARINE (378/26); Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them.

What this read did not use (5): show them
  • first-party document: NAVAREA IX navigational warnings: its latest document is 204 days old, past the 30-day window; held as provenance.
  • first-party document: Corroboration & context: its latest document is 891 days old, past the 30-day window; held as provenance.
  • 8 further claim rows (of every standing): shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read.
  • 2 market questions past their deadline: kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation.
  • 1 market questions with no readable deadline: not counted as open; no deadline is on file for them.

The answer a machine gets, before and after

What keeping the layers apart changes for a machine reader. The left column is what a one-layer reader concludes; the right column is what the maintained record keeps in view. Each line is derived from the record’s own layers, the same record machines fetch. None of it comes from a staged chat.

Without the record: one layer at a time

Reading only the coverage line (coverage state, our own measurement): attention is 30% above its baseline and rising. Conclusion: “breaking, escalate.”

Reading only one reporting headline (attributed): “Pictures reveal huge cargo containers floating in Strait of Hormuz after Iran sinks two ships in day of violence”. Conclusion: “whatever that single frame implies, with no way to see the layers that disagree with it.”

Reading only one market price (belief, not fact): “Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?” at 37.5%. Conclusion: “the crowd has settled it; one question’s odds stand in for the whole state of the world.”

Each single-layer read reaches a different conclusion.

With the record: every layer in view

UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 105, dated 15 october. Read from the issuer Oct 16, 2026. Of 10 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Oct 9, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026), 2 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 5 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Singapore-Flagged Container Ship Carrying Over 2,500 Containers Sinks In Strait Of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 5 publishers from 4 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 14, 2026); “US-Iran war: Yemen says 950 Houthis killed; Iran denies RAF Fairford plot, IRGC warns foreign powers off Strait of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 3 publishers from 3 separate origins, earliest Oct 9, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive. 1498 of the 1567 events in this record's press archive (its 2542 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 822 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. The ledger holds 12 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Oct 15, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions. Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026?” at 76.5% (polymarket, Oct 15, 2026), while our own record holds 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 10 claims in all: 5 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record. Earlier documents on file: NAVAREA IX navigational warnings, latest dated 26 MARINE (378/26); Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them. Of the 7 parts of that read, 1 is not yet read; the rest are measurements. It is our analysis of the record’s own dated sections, attributed throughout and labeled ours. We serve current state, not forecasts.

Composed from the record’s own dated layers. The layers it holds apart: observed operational state · observed reporting · the record itself · coverage state · market expectation · our reading · reporting consensus · the recorded history.

show the machine’s judgment sentence, as servedWe keep the layers apart and do not collapse them. Our attention on Hormuz stands 30% above its baseline and is rising. That measures our coverage, not the subject. The reporting layer is attributed outside coverage, and the consensus ledger speaks as of 2026-10-16 (producer last ran 2026-10-16). Each claim carries its date, and a dated layer is never read as today's news. The market layer prices 5 questions still open by their own deadline, beside 2 past their deadline and held as historical capture. A price is collective belief about defined outcomes, never proof. A system that read any single layer alone could answer wrongly in either direction; the maintained record keeps every layer in view. This is our judgment over the layers above, labeled as such.

Provenance of this panel: each line above is derived from the record’s own layers, not from a staged chat. The coverage numbers, the headline and the market price are fields in the same record served at GET /api/record/hormuz. The right column is composed from the record’s dated layers, with the served judgment sentence one tap away, verbatim. No transcripts were invented. The disagreement is in the data.

What this record does not tell you

2 sections on this record came back "we could not look". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here.

  • How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Hormuz has been scored
  • What contradicts: our test for a plain yes against a no could not run (the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair). No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident.

Standing limits of the method, true of every run:

  • The first-party maritime and government issuers behind this record are identified and verified — UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily. An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a content change on the tripwire pair (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes / NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.
  • The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (143 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.
  • Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous.

Verify it yourself

This page, GET /api/record/hormuz and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading. One honest distinction: get_entity("hormuz") returns the broader live entity dossier — a different, complementary object, not this record.

Served to machines as the resource sb://exhibit/hormuz, and through the API and MCP.

REST

curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/hormuz

MCP

curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"get_topic_record","arguments":{"subject":"hormuz"}}}'

Where this record comes from

This record reads as of 15 Oct 2026, assembled 15 Oct 2026. Its version number is sb.tr-9b34b4cb. The number is computed from the sections above, so it changes only when the record’s content changes. The site release number is added when the record is served, so this page does not show it. We check the first-party sources at least every 72 hours; the last check found them current.

Informational only, never financial, legal, or investment advice. This record is rebuilt from the live record on every data deploy.