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Start from a sample Watch (each one reads the Strait of Hormuz record)

This Watch reads: Strait of Hormuz transit: availability, safety and cost of passage. To have us watch something else, propose a topic below.

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Who uses a Watch

  • A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
  • An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
  • An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?

A sample record: the Strait of Hormuz

This is one record we keep, shown as a sample of what a Watch reads. It is not a reading of your domain.

Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.

Strait of Hormuz

From the reporting ledger · newest report 14 Oct 2026

The ledger holds 2,485 sentences about the strait. Grouped by the event they report, they make 1,527 events: 12 corroborated, 54 reported by two, 1,461 single source. The ledger also holds 805 sentences the event rule could not place; each counts on its own sources. 75 of those events were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 1 claim was replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; it is kept, marked, and not counted here. The record also holds 88 pairs of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether they differ. The newest of the best-supported are below.

No new claim carried by three or more separate reports since 8 Oct.

  • First reported 8 Oct

    A number of casualties have been reported after a tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has announced.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 8 Oct

    Iranian attacks on tankers hit their highest level last week of any week since the U.S.-Iran war began, with the increased offensive coming shortly after shipping through Hormuz briefly touched pre-war levels in September.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 5 outlets · 1 more carries the same wire story · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 29 Sep

    As presented by Araghchi, the plan calls for a seven-day cessation of hostilities across the region, including Lebanon; the release of at least $12bn in frozen Iranian assets; the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil; and an end to the US naval blockade.

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 27 Sep

    Earlier on Saturday, President Donald Trump rejected a truce deal proposed by Iran that Tehran said could have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within a week.

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 26 Sep

    Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear programme in seven days if the United States lifts its naval blockade, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that would include Lebanon.

    Corroborated · 5 separate reports · 6 outlets · 1 more repeats the same words · 5 sentences, one event

  • First reported 23 Sep

    According to Baqaei, Iran’s conditions for resuming diplomacy include an end to fighting on all fronts, a halt to US acts of aggression against Iran, an end to the US naval blockade and economic war against the country, and the release of Iranian assets.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 14 Oct

    Ships in the Strait of Hormuz have been experiencing the worst spate of attacks since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

  • First reported 12 Oct

    Attacks on commercial shipping are spreading across the Gulf region, with two Indian seafarers missing after a drone struck a tanker off Oman on Sunday and another tanker hit by a projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?” was priced at 90.75% when last seen (2026-10-14). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.

Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
  • Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.

Replaced, never erased

When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.

The ledger keeps 1 replaced claim, marked, and none is about the strait’s own reporting, so none is shown here. The record’s change log counts every replacement and shows the newest.

See every claim in the Hormuz record

Watch

The sample record (Strait of Hormuz), as data

GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)

{
  "ledger": {
    "computedAt": "2026-10-14T15:49:51+00:00",
    "newestSeen": "2026-10-14",
    "counts": {
      "kernel": 2485,
      "frames": 637,
      "retired": 10,
      "corroborated": 47,
      "two": 126,
      "single": 2312,
      "disputed": 0,
      "repeated": 75,
      "events": {
        "events": 1527,
        "corroborated": 12,
        "two": 54,
        "single": 1461,
        "couldNotMatch": 805,
        "rule": "event@2"
      }
    },
    "countUnit": "event",
    "standing": {
      "unit": "event",
      "unitMeaning": "event: the sentences the ledger's event rule (named in its eventRule header) groups as reports of one incident, counted together under the origins rule",
      "rule": "event@2",
      "sentences": 2485,
      "ladder": {
        "unit": "event",
        "counted": 1527,
        "corroborated": 12,
        "reportedByTwo": 54,
        "singleSource": 1461,
        "couldNotMatch": 805
      },
      "perSentence": {
        "unit": "sentence",
        "counted": 2485,
        "corroborated": 0,
        "reportedByTwo": 4,
        "singleSource": 2481,
        "notStated": 0
      },
      "fields": {
        "standing": "eventStatus",
        "separateReports": "eventOriginCount",
        "outlets": "eventOutletCount",
        "repetition": "eventRepetition",
        "eventKey": "eventKey",
        "sentencesInEvent": "eventSize",
        "match": "eventMatch"
      },
      "statement": "A kernel row that carries eventOriginCount is counted by its event (the rule named in the ledger's eventRule header): its standing is eventStatus and its count eventOriginCount, exactly as the page reads it. Its per-sentence status and originCount are kept beside them, unchanged. A row without the event fields is counted by its sentence: status and originCount. A row with disputedWith reads Contested whatever its count. A row whose eventMatch is could-not-match keeps its sentence count: could not match is not single source."
    }
  },
  "viewpoints": [
    {
      "viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
      "asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Energy desk",
      "asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
      "asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    }
  ]
}

The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.

GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level

{
  "claim": "A number of casualties have been reported after a tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has announced.",
  "status": "single-source",
  "independentChains": 1,
  "repetition": null,
  "standing": {
    "unit": "event",
    "level": "corroborated",
    "word": "Corroborated",
    "separateReports": 3,
    "outlets": 3,
    "repeated": null,
    "eventKey": "ev1:f5adea9d18398021",
    "sentencesInEvent": 3,
    "eventMatch": "matched"
  },
  "whereFrom": {
    "level": "where from",
    "label": "Where from",
    "relations": [
      {
        "role": "part of",
        "members": [
          "/event/hormuz/",
          "/record/"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "children": [
      {
        "level": "report",
        "label": "Al Jazeera · first seen 8 Oct",
        "children": {
          "count": 1,
          "unfold": "expand=+1"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
}

The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Its standing and counts are the ones this page shows, in the unit named (one sentence, or the event its sentences report); status and independentChains are the sentence's own, kept beside them. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.