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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Trump

Donald Trump — the 45th and 47th president of the United States.

Coverage of Trump is holding steady : 128 signals on the latest tracked day, up 33% from its three-week baseline of 96, across 39 domains (down from 48 a week ago). That makes it the #10 most-covered of the 348 concerns we track.

Trump is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 96 signals a day across 39 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 120+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 39. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,074 tracked stories from 322 outlets, reporting on Trump most often describes sanctions or trade (229), public statements (192), meetings or visits (67), military action (65), elections (50), launches or releases (48).

It shows up alongside President Donald Trump (729), Iran (553 — sanctions or trade ×22, ceasefire or deal ×3), United States (455), China (335 — sanctions or trade ×17, meetings or visits ×3), Oil (316 — ceasefire or deal ×3, sanctions or trade ×3), Tariffs (302 — sanctions or trade ×101), White House (280 — sanctions or trade ×2), Treasury (266).

Two steps out: Hormuz (through Iran, 415 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Iran, 397 shared stories on the weaker link); AI (through China, 335 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through China, 335 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 99 separate days.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Trump out as President before 2027?” fell 2 points between Jul 17 and Aug 31, from 8% to 6%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jul 17 – Aug 31, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 31, 4:33 PM PT