Diplomacy · curated

Russia–Ukraine war

One event, one record — every framing of this event across news coverage and the crowd’s pricing resolves to this one key, so nothing fragments. Tracked since 2026-05-24; last seen 2026-08-28.

This event publishes a maintained truth record — /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war (also via the get_truth_object MCP tool). Layer clocks are stated per layer there; the “last seen” above is this card’s coverage-and-pricing clock.

Matched mentions in window

1,182

news items matched to this event in the coverage window — the list below is a sample, not the full set.

Crowd questions

41

Distinct framings the crowd is pricing right now — near-duplicate strike/deadline variants collapse into the 6 shown below.

Windows

8

Time windows tracked — most active: August 2026.

When the activity clusters1,463 tracked mentions by market deadline window — the peak is August 2026.
When the activity clusters
AreaMentions
2026224
August 2026548
September 202692
October 202692
December 2026266
2027180
March 20277
June 202754
WHO THIS INVOLVES

In the coverage

A sample of the recent reporting behind this event, with the original source behind every headline.

What the crowd is asking

Live question framings from public prediction markets — one sensor we cite for where consensus sits, never advice on which way to lean.

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 14.5% (2026-08-31)
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 99.95% (2026-05-09)
view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 4.6% (2026-08-30)
RELATED EVENTS

The crowd’s questions are cited as a public consensus sensor; mention counts are our own coverage record. Informational only — not advice. As of 2026-08-31 · live snapshot.