Strait of Hormuz
The ledger holds 1,998 claims about the strait: 1 corroborated, 5 reported by two, 1,992 single source. 31 of them were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 1 claim was replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; it is kept, marked, and not counted here. Another 57 look-alike pairs could not be matched incident for incident, so the test cannot say whether they differ. The newest of the best-supported are below.
No new claim carried by three or more separate reports since 27 Sep.
- First reported 27 Sep
US President Donald Trump has rejected an offer from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as Washington intensifies economic pressure on Tehran, including measures targeting banks and airlines.
- First reported 27 Sep
U.S. President Donald Trump said he rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities, despite earlier reports that talks between Washington and Tehran through mediators had been constructive.
- First reported 26 Sep
Trump ‘rejects’ Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal.
2 more reports are kept in the claims ledger: they appear here once we have their links and exact words
From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?” was priced at 34.5% when last seen (2026-10-10). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.
Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
- Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
- An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
- One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.