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Start from a sample Watch (each one reads the Strait of Hormuz record)

This Watch reads: Strait of Hormuz transit: availability, safety and cost of passage. To have us watch something else, propose a topic below.

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Who uses a Watch

  • A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
  • An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
  • An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?

A sample record: the Strait of Hormuz

This is one record we keep, shown as a sample of what a Watch reads. It is not a reading of your domain.

Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.

Strait of Hormuz

From the reporting ledger · newest report 28 Oct 2026

The ledger holds 3,327 sentences about the strait. Grouped by the event they report, they make 2,083 events: 16 corroborated, 66 reported by two, 2,001 single source. The ledger also holds 1,065 sentences the event rule could not place; each counts on its own sources. 62 of those events were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 2 claims were replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; they are kept, marked, and not counted here. The newest of the best-supported are below.

  • First reported 27 Oct

    25 marked the export of at least 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since the summer through Hormuz, with US Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper flying over the chokepoint in a US Army CH-47 Chinook, Central Command said on X. It noted that more than 3,000 commercial ships had successfully transited Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 23 Oct

    The US state department ordered some diplomats and the families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, which has faced continued attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 19 Oct

    Tehran's demands include lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, removing sanctions on Iranian oil exports and ending regional hostilities.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 17 Oct

    Ten of the attacks occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, one in the Persian Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 12 Oct

    Attacks on commercial shipping are spreading across the Gulf region, with two Indian seafarers missing after a drone struck a tanker off Oman on Sunday and another tanker hit by a projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 8 Oct

    A number of casualties have been reported after a tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has announced.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 24 Oct

    The attack took place during a US Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

  • First reported 22 Oct

    In a separate claim, the IRGC said three additional vessels struck naval mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, causing fires that left them disabled, according to Reuters.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?” was priced at 32.5% when last seen (2026-10-28). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.

Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
  • Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.

Replaced, never erased

When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.

The ledger keeps 2 replaced claims, each marked, and none is about the strait’s own reporting, so none is shown here. The record’s change log counts every replacement and shows the newest.

See every claim in the Hormuz record

Watch

The sample record (Strait of Hormuz), as data

GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)

{
  "ledger": {
    "computedAt": "2026-10-28T21:43:16+00:00",
    "newestSeen": "2026-10-28",
    "counts": {
      "kernel": 3327,
      "frames": 865,
      "retired": 11,
      "corroborated": 59,
      "two": 146,
      "single": 3122,
      "disputed": 0,
      "repeated": 62,
      "events": {
        "events": 2083,
        "corroborated": 16,
        "two": 66,
        "single": 2001,
        "couldNotMatch": 1065,
        "rule": "event@2"
      }
    },
    "countUnit": "event",
    "standing": {
      "unit": "event",
      "unitMeaning": "event: the sentences the ledger's event rule (named in its eventRule header) groups as reports of one incident, counted together under the origins rule",
      "rule": "event@2",
      "sentences": 3327,
      "ladder": {
        "unit": "event",
        "counted": 2083,
        "corroborated": 16,
        "reportedByTwo": 66,
        "singleSource": 2001,
        "couldNotMatch": 1065
      },
      "perSentence": {
        "unit": "sentence",
        "counted": 3327,
        "corroborated": 0,
        "reportedByTwo": 4,
        "singleSource": 3323,
        "notStated": 0
      },
      "fields": {
        "standing": "eventStatus",
        "separateReports": "eventOriginCount",
        "outlets": "eventOutletCount",
        "repetition": "eventRepetition",
        "eventKey": "eventKey",
        "sentencesInEvent": "eventSize",
        "match": "eventMatch"
      },
      "statement": "A kernel row that carries eventOriginCount is counted by its event (the rule named in the ledger's eventRule header): its standing is eventStatus and its count eventOriginCount, exactly as the page reads it. Its per-sentence status and originCount are kept beside them, unchanged. A row without the event fields is counted by its sentence: status and originCount. A row with disputedWith reads Contested whatever its count. A row whose eventMatch is could-not-match keeps its sentence count: could not match is not single source."
    }
  },
  "viewpoints": [
    {
      "viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
      "asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Energy desk",
      "asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
      "asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    }
  ]
}

The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.

GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level

{
  "claim": "25 marked the export of at least 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since the summer through Hormuz, with US Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper flying over the chokepoint in a US Army CH-47 Chinook, Central Command said on X. It noted that more than 3,000 commercial ships had successfully transited Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months.",
  "status": "single-source",
  "independentChains": 1,
  "repetition": null,
  "standing": {
    "unit": "event",
    "level": "corroborated",
    "word": "Corroborated",
    "separateReports": 3,
    "outlets": 3,
    "repeated": null,
    "eventKey": "ev1:7bd98bc0396c3f1b",
    "sentencesInEvent": 3,
    "eventMatch": "matched"
  },
  "whereFrom": {
    "level": "where from",
    "label": "Where from",
    "relations": [
      {
        "role": "part of",
        "members": [
          "/event/hormuz/",
          "/record/"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "children": [
      {
        "level": "report",
        "label": "Hellenic Shipping News · first seen 27 Oct",
        "children": {
          "count": 1,
          "unfold": "expand=+1"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
}

The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Its standing and counts are the ones this page shows, in the unit named (one sentence, or the event its sentences report); status and independentChains are the sentence's own, kept beside them. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.