Strait of Hormuz
The ledger holds 2,322 claims about the strait: 0 corroborated, 4 reported by two, 2,318 single source. 43 of them were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 1 claim was replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; it is kept, marked, and not counted here. Another 80 look-alike pairs could not be matched incident for incident, so the test cannot say whether they differ. The newest of the best-supported are below.
No new claim carried by three or more separate reports since 28 Sep.
- First reported 28 Sep
Iran has lodged a complaint with the United Nations over U.S. sanctions against its aviation sector, which have forced the cancellation of many flights across the region, state media reported Monday.
- First reported 26 Sep
Trump also posted an image to his Truth Social platform of a map showing the Strait of Hormuz circled and labelled "Trump Strait."
From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, βWill at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?β was priced at 22.5% when last seen (2026-10-11). That is Polymarketβs price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.
Set aside Β· 9 claims, each with why
- Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
- An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
- One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.