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1. Configure (free)

Start from a sample Watch (each one reads the Strait of Hormuz record)

This Watch reads: Strait of Hormuz transit: availability, safety and cost of passage. To have us watch something else, propose a topic below.

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Who uses a Watch

  • A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
  • An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
  • An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?

A sample record: the Strait of Hormuz

This is one record we keep, shown as a sample of what a Watch reads. It is not a reading of your domain.

Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.

Strait of Hormuz

From the reporting ledger · newest report 4 Nov 2026

The ledger holds 647 sentences about the strait. Grouped by the event they report, they make 409 events: 4 corroborated, 10 reported by two, 395 single source. The ledger also holds 200 sentences the event rule could not place; each counts on its own sources. 13 of those events were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 2 claims were replaced by a later report since 10 Sep; they are kept, marked, and not counted here. The newest of the best-supported are below.

  • First reported 3 Nov

    Prices initially rebounded overnight after reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, before reversing sharply Tuesday morning.

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 3 Nov

    - US strikes Qeshm Island: US forces carried out limited defensive strikes on Iranian targets, including forces allegedly targeting US assets with surface-to-air missiles.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 5 sentences, one event

  • First reported 3 Nov

    According to the report, in one exchange, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired a surface-to-air missile at a US warplane, which fired back in self-defence.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 31 Oct

    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has intercepted two more drones, and Iran has claimed that four oil tankers struck naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 4 Nov

    Four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines in an area south of the Strait of Hormuz proscribed by Iran as prohibited for navigation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday, as attacks on vessels in the region intensify while crude oil flows have dipped from recent highs.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

  • First reported 4 Nov

    Iran has called the US response to its seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz “unconvincing” as US President Donald Trump confirmed launching strikes on an Iranian island near the strategic waterway.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?” was priced at 36.5% when last seen (2026-11-04). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.

Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
  • Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.

Replaced, never erased

When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.

The ledger keeps 2 replaced claims, each marked, and none is about the strait’s own reporting, so none is shown here. The record’s change log counts every replacement and shows the newest.

See every claim in the Hormuz record

Watch

The sample record (Strait of Hormuz), as data

GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)

{
  "ledger": {
    "computedAt": "2026-11-04T12:34:54+00:00",
    "newestSeen": "2026-11-04",
    "counts": {
      "kernel": 647,
      "frames": 169,
      "retired": 11,
      "corroborated": 16,
      "two": 23,
      "single": 608,
      "disputed": 0,
      "repeated": 13,
      "events": {
        "events": 409,
        "corroborated": 4,
        "two": 10,
        "single": 395,
        "couldNotMatch": 200,
        "rule": "event@2"
      }
    },
    "countUnit": "event",
    "standing": {
      "unit": "event",
      "unitMeaning": "event: the sentences the ledger's event rule (named in its eventRule header) groups as reports of one incident, counted together under the origins rule",
      "rule": "event@2",
      "sentences": 647,
      "ladder": {
        "unit": "event",
        "counted": 409,
        "corroborated": 4,
        "reportedByTwo": 10,
        "singleSource": 395,
        "couldNotMatch": 200
      },
      "perSentence": {
        "unit": "sentence",
        "counted": 647,
        "corroborated": 0,
        "reportedByTwo": 1,
        "singleSource": 646,
        "notStated": 0
      },
      "fields": {
        "standing": "eventStatus",
        "separateReports": "eventOriginCount",
        "outlets": "eventOutletCount",
        "repetition": "eventRepetition",
        "eventKey": "eventKey",
        "sentencesInEvent": "eventSize",
        "match": "eventMatch"
      },
      "statement": "A kernel row that carries eventOriginCount is counted by its event (the rule named in the ledger's eventRule header): its standing is eventStatus and its count eventOriginCount, exactly as the page reads it. Its per-sentence status and originCount are kept beside them, unchanged. A row without the event fields is counted by its sentence: status and originCount. A row with disputedWith reads Contested whatever its count. A row whose eventMatch is could-not-match keeps its sentence count: could not match is not single source."
    }
  },
  "viewpoints": [
    {
      "viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
      "asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Energy desk",
      "asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
      "asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    }
  ]
}

The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.

GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level

{
  "claim": "Prices initially rebounded overnight after reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, before reversing sharply Tuesday morning.",
  "status": "single-source",
  "independentChains": 1,
  "repetition": null,
  "standing": {
    "unit": "event",
    "level": "corroborated",
    "word": "Corroborated",
    "separateReports": 4,
    "outlets": 4,
    "repeated": null,
    "eventKey": "ev1:3ddf923d015c6ea1",
    "sentencesInEvent": 4,
    "eventMatch": "matched"
  },
  "whereFrom": {
    "level": "where from",
    "label": "Where from",
    "relations": [
      {
        "role": "part of",
        "members": [
          "/event/hormuz/",
          "/record/"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "children": [
      {
        "level": "report",
        "label": "Oil Price · first seen 3 Nov",
        "children": {
          "count": 1,
          "unfold": "expand=+1"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
}

The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Its standing and counts are the ones this page shows, in the unit named (one sentence, or the event its sentences report); status and independentChains are the sentence's own, kept beside them. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.