The morning read.

Europe's far-right surge is breaking through the firewall. The money is pricing a broader realignment across European parliaments — not isolated national stories but a coordinated shift in the continent's political center of gravity. The Hormuz diplomacy market tells a different story: the Iran-Oman strait-management agreement climbed 13 points to 29% on $52K volume even as CBS News reports U.S. diesel hitting record highs and Fortune quotes VP Vance downplaying "war" language. The market is pricing diplomatic progress while energy markets price conflict impact.

The cross-domain picture shows mixed signals from state-aligned Tehran Times claiming Trump gains from Netanyahu's strategy, while Western sources report active conflict and energy-price shocks. The Sweden parliamentary move has conviction (0.34 score, tight 2% spread, $57K real money) but the related news articles cover Germany's AfD breakthrough, Amazon DSP markets, and EU custodian issues — none directly address Sweden's Liberals, yet the market repriced anyway.

The thin-volume signals tell the absence story: Trump-Putin dialogue jumped 21 points to 88% on just $2K of flow, and Russia's Serhiivka advance climbed 25 points to 96% on $2,259 — Al Jazeera reports U.S. envoys meeting Putin, and related articles cover Ukrainian drone strikes and U.S. diplomatic efforts, but neither market has the liquidity to confirm conviction. When the headline matches but the money doesn't follow, the market is watching, not betting. Germany's AfD market is the exception: 30-point move on $7K volume with related articles discussing economic implications (Euronews on economic recovery risks, War on the Rocks on Russia reset) alongside Al Jazeera reporting election breakthrough — the crowd is pricing coalition breakthrough.

THE READ — Iran-Oman Hormuz diplomacy climbed 13 points to 29% on $52K volume despite U.S. diesel hitting record highs and Fortune reporting VP Vance downplaying conflict language.