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Start from a sample Watch (each one reads the Strait of Hormuz record)

This Watch reads: Strait of Hormuz transit: availability, safety and cost of passage. To have us watch something else, propose a topic below.

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Who uses a Watch

  • A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
  • An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
  • An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?

A sample record: the Strait of Hormuz

This is one record we keep, shown as a sample of what a Watch reads. It is not a reading of your domain.

Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.

Strait of Hormuz

From the reporting ledger · newest report 14 Nov 2026

The ledger holds 4,400 sentences about the strait. Grouped by the event they report, they make 2,715 events: 26 corroborated, 95 reported by two, 2,594 single source. The ledger also holds 1,417 sentences the event rule could not place; each counts on its own sources. 88 of those events were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 5 claims were replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; they are kept, marked, and not counted here. The record also holds 4 pairs of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether they differ. The newest of the best-supported are below.

  • First reported 14 Nov

    The United States, in response to Tehran's choking of the strategic trade route, has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and provides military support to tankers using the waterway.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 11 Nov

    "Early this morning, a violating oil tanker caught fire after striking a naval mine in an unsafe, prohibited area in the east of the Strait of Hormuz," the naval forces of Iran's army said in a statement carried by state TV.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 11 Nov

    28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 5 outlets · 2 more repeat the same words · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 11 Nov

    He said the Strait of Hormuz – the global maritime corridor that Iran closed – will not reopen until the US meets Tehran’s seven conditions.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 9 Nov

    - US President Donald Trump says Washington’s latest blockade on Iran’s land supply routes, dubbed “Iron Gate”, is in effect, and that renewed strikes are “highly unlikely” if there is progress in talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 8 Nov

    CENTCOM estimates that the blockade has prevented Iran from exporting more than $25 billion worth of crude oil, although that figure has not been independently verified.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 14 Nov

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said Friday that two oil tankers exploded and caught fire after striking sea mines while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

  • First reported 13 Nov

    Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US bases in Gulf states and sought to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and gas supplies.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?” was priced at 29% when last seen (2026-11-14). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.

Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
  • Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.

Replaced, never erased

When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.

From the Hormuz reporting ledger

Said on 27 Sept 2026: US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

Replaced 15 Nov 2026 by: US President Donald Trump has rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping within a week.

Why: A later report in the same thread replaced it. The first claim stays on the record, marked replaced. The ledger keeps 5 replaced claims this way.

See every claim in the Hormuz record

Watch

The sample record (Strait of Hormuz), as data

GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)

{
  "ledger": {
    "computedAt": "2026-11-15T03:35:30+00:00",
    "newestSeen": "2026-11-14",
    "counts": {
      "kernel": 4400,
      "frames": 1114,
      "retired": 14,
      "corroborated": 96,
      "two": 200,
      "single": 4104,
      "disputed": 0,
      "repeated": 88,
      "events": {
        "events": 2715,
        "corroborated": 26,
        "two": 95,
        "single": 2594,
        "couldNotMatch": 1417,
        "rule": "event@2"
      }
    },
    "countUnit": "event",
    "standing": {
      "unit": "event",
      "unitMeaning": "event: the sentences the ledger's event rule (named in its eventRule header) groups as reports of one incident, counted together under the origins rule",
      "rule": "event@2",
      "sentences": 4400,
      "ladder": {
        "unit": "event",
        "counted": 2715,
        "corroborated": 26,
        "reportedByTwo": 95,
        "singleSource": 2594,
        "couldNotMatch": 1417
      },
      "perSentence": {
        "unit": "sentence",
        "counted": 4400,
        "corroborated": 1,
        "reportedByTwo": 5,
        "singleSource": 4394,
        "notStated": 0
      },
      "fields": {
        "standing": "eventStatus",
        "separateReports": "eventOriginCount",
        "outlets": "eventOutletCount",
        "repetition": "eventRepetition",
        "eventKey": "eventKey",
        "sentencesInEvent": "eventSize",
        "match": "eventMatch"
      },
      "statement": "A kernel row that carries eventOriginCount is counted by its event (the rule named in the ledger's eventRule header): its standing is eventStatus and its count eventOriginCount, exactly as the page reads it. Its per-sentence status and originCount are kept beside them, unchanged. A row without the event fields is counted by its sentence: status and originCount. A row with disputedWith reads Contested whatever its count. A row whose eventMatch is could-not-match keeps its sentence count: could not match is not single source."
    }
  },
  "viewpoints": [
    {
      "viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
      "asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Energy desk",
      "asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
      "asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    }
  ]
}

The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.

GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level

{
  "claim": "The United States, in response to Tehran's choking of the strategic trade route, has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and provides military support to tankers using the waterway.",
  "status": "single-source",
  "independentChains": 1,
  "repetition": null,
  "standing": {
    "unit": "event",
    "level": "corroborated",
    "word": "Corroborated",
    "separateReports": 3,
    "outlets": 3,
    "repeated": null,
    "eventKey": "ev1:b591aa9847ee5076",
    "sentencesInEvent": 3,
    "eventMatch": "matched"
  },
  "whereFrom": {
    "level": "where from",
    "label": "Where from",
    "relations": [
      {
        "role": "part of",
        "members": [
          "/event/strait-of-hormuz/",
          "/record/"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "children": [
      {
        "level": "report",
        "label": "Gulfnews · first seen 14 Nov",
        "children": {
          "count": 1,
          "unfold": "expand=+1"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
}

The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Its standing and counts are the ones this page shows, in the unit named (one sentence, or the event its sentences report); status and independentChains are the sentence's own, kept beside them. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.