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This Watch reads: Strait of Hormuz transit: availability, safety and cost of passage. To have us watch something else, propose a topic below.
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Who uses a Watch
A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?
A sample record: the Strait of Hormuz
This is one record we keep, shown as a sample of what a Watch reads. It is not a reading of your domain.
Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.
Strait of Hormuz
From the reporting ledger · newest report 6 Oct 2026
The ledger holds 1,781 claims about the strait: 23 corroborated, 90 reported by two, 1,668 single source. 6 claims sit beside another report that gives a different answer. Both are kept. The newest of the best-supported are below.
No new claim carried by three or more separate reports since 27 Sep.
First reported 27 Sep
RAF Fairford has been used by the US to strike Iran.
●●● Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 2 outlets · last seen 28 Sep
1 more report is kept in the claims ledger: it appears here once we have its link and exact words
First reported 6 Oct
An inbound tanker around 11 nautical miles north of Khasab was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ordered to turn around or face attack.
●●○ Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets
From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?” was priced at 12.5% when last seen (2026-10-06). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.
Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
Reports that give different answers
6 claims sit beside another report that gives a different answer. Both are kept. The newest:
First reported 11 Sep
Goldman analysts estimated around 15 million barrels a day crossing the Hormuz waterway.
≠ Contested
Another report says: Vitol's CEO estimated that roughly 10 million barrels a day were crossing the Hormuz waterway.
When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.
From the Hormuz reporting ledger
Said on 3 Sept 2026: Mitsui OSK does not currently plan to return to shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz due to elevated risks.
Replaced 6 Oct 2026 by: In a quarterly financial report last month, Mitsui OSK assumed navigation around the Strait of Hormuz would gradually resume from October 2026 and be normalized in January 2027.
Why: A later report in the same thread replaced it. The first claim stays on the record, marked replaced. The ledger keeps 94 replaced claims this way.
GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)
{
"ledger": {
"computedAt": "2026-10-06T18:46:44+00:00",
"newestSeen": "2026-10-06",
"counts": {
"kernel": 1781,
"frames": 468,
"retired": 103,
"corroborated": 23,
"two": 90,
"single": 1668,
"disputed": 6
}
},
"viewpoints": [
{
"viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
"asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
"sortedReading": {
"state": "cannot-measure",
"reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
}
},
{
"viewpoint": "Energy desk",
"asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
"sortedReading": {
"state": "cannot-measure",
"reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
}
},
{
"viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
"asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
"sortedReading": {
"state": "cannot-measure",
"reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
}
}
]
}
The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.
GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level
{
"claim": "RAF Fairford has been used by the US to strike Iran.",
"status": "corroborated",
"independentChains": 3,
"whereFrom": {
"level": "where from",
"label": "Where from",
"relations": [
{
"role": "part of",
"members": [
"/event/hormuz/",
"/record/"
]
}
],
"children": [
{
"level": "report",
"label": "Al-Monitor · first seen 27 Sep",
"children": {
"count": 1,
"unfold": "expand=+1"
}
},
{
"level": "report",
"label": "France 24 · first seen 27 Sep",
"children": {
"count": 1,
"unfold": "expand=+1"
}
},
{
"level": "report",
"label": "Al-Monitor · first seen 28 Sep",
"children": {
"count": 1,
"unfold": "expand=+1"
}
},
{
"level": "not shown",
"label": "1 more report is kept in the claims ledger",
"edge": "it appears here once we have its link and exact words"
}
]
}
}
The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.