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Start from a sample Watch (each one reads the Strait of Hormuz record)

This Watch reads: Strait of Hormuz transit: availability, safety and cost of passage. To have us watch something else, propose a topic below.

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Who uses a Watch

  • A maritime operator asks: Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?
  • An energy desk asks: Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?
  • An escalation analyst asks: Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?

A sample record: the Strait of Hormuz

This is one record we keep, shown as a sample of what a Watch reads. It is not a reading of your domain.

Agreement between publishers is not proof of the facts; a repeated error passes any count. Open “where from” on any claim to follow it to the original articles.

Strait of Hormuz

From the reporting ledger · newest report 7 Nov 2026

The ledger holds 3,802 sentences about the strait. Grouped by the event they report, they make 2,344 events: 17 corroborated, 73 reported by two, 2,254 single source. The ledger also holds 1,248 sentences the event rule could not place; each counts on its own sources. 69 of those events were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 5 claims were replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; they are kept, marked, and not counted here. The record also holds 1 pair of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether the two differ. The newest of the best-supported are below.

  • First reported 6 Nov

    The incident took place about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal at 2320 GMT on November 4, 2026, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which said it had received a verified report.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 4 Nov

    Tensions in the Middle East remained in focus after US officials reported conducting “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, which targeted surface-to-air missiles.

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · 6 sentences, one event

  • First reported 3 Nov

    Prices initially rebounded overnight after reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, before reversing sharply Tuesday morning.

    Corroborated · 4 separate reports · 4 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 3 Nov

    According to the report, in one exchange, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired a surface-to-air missile at a US warplane, which fired back in self-defence.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 31 Oct

    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has intercepted two more drones, and Iran has claimed that four oil tankers struck naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 4 sentences, one event

  • First reported 27 Oct

    25 marked the export of at least 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since the summer through Hormuz, with US Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper flying over the chokepoint in a US Army CH-47 Chinook, Central Command said on X. It noted that more than 3,000 commercial ships had successfully transited Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months.

    Corroborated · 3 separate reports · 3 outlets · 3 sentences, one event

  • First reported 7 Nov

    - Iran’s official news agency IRNA reports two missiles have struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, while semi-official outlets report there were no casualties.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

  • First reported 6 Nov

    Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after trying to use "unauthorised" routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Reported by two · 2 separate reports · 2 outlets · 2 sentences, one event

From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will there be between 0 and 4 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30?” was priced at 40% when last seen (2026-11-07). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.

Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
  • Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
  • One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.

Replaced, never erased

When a later report replaces a claim, the record keeps the first one, marked, with the date and the reason.

From the Hormuz reporting ledger

Said on 3 Nov 2026: US forces reportedly launched a secret attack on Iran’s Qeshm Island Monday, the latest in a series of small-scale strikes aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.

Replaced 7 Nov 2026 by: Trump said American forces carried out fresh limited strikes on Friday against an Iranian air-defence installation near Qeshm Island, close to the Strait of Hormuz.

Why: A later report in the same thread replaced it. The first claim stays on the record, marked replaced. The ledger keeps 5 replaced claims this way.

See every claim in the Hormuz record

Watch

The sample record (Strait of Hormuz), as data

GET claims_hormuz.json → counts, and the state of each viewpoint's sorted reading (build time)

{
  "ledger": {
    "computedAt": "2026-11-07T18:45:25+00:00",
    "newestSeen": "2026-11-07",
    "counts": {
      "kernel": 3802,
      "frames": 959,
      "retired": 14,
      "corroborated": 66,
      "two": 156,
      "single": 3580,
      "disputed": 0,
      "repeated": 69,
      "events": {
        "events": 2344,
        "corroborated": 17,
        "two": 73,
        "single": 2254,
        "couldNotMatch": 1248,
        "rule": "event@2"
      }
    },
    "countUnit": "event",
    "standing": {
      "unit": "event",
      "unitMeaning": "event: the sentences the ledger's event rule (named in its eventRule header) groups as reports of one incident, counted together under the origins rule",
      "rule": "event@2",
      "sentences": 3802,
      "ladder": {
        "unit": "event",
        "counted": 2344,
        "corroborated": 17,
        "reportedByTwo": 73,
        "singleSource": 2254,
        "couldNotMatch": 1248
      },
      "perSentence": {
        "unit": "sentence",
        "counted": 3802,
        "corroborated": 1,
        "reportedByTwo": 5,
        "singleSource": 3796,
        "notStated": 0
      },
      "fields": {
        "standing": "eventStatus",
        "separateReports": "eventOriginCount",
        "outlets": "eventOutletCount",
        "repetition": "eventRepetition",
        "eventKey": "eventKey",
        "sentencesInEvent": "eventSize",
        "match": "eventMatch"
      },
      "statement": "A kernel row that carries eventOriginCount is counted by its event (the rule named in the ledger's eventRule header): its standing is eventStatus and its count eventOriginCount, exactly as the page reads it. Its per-sentence status and originCount are kept beside them, unchanged. A row without the event fields is counted by its sentence: status and originCount. A row with disputedWith reads Contested whatever its count. A row whose eventMatch is could-not-match keeps its sentence count: could not match is not single source."
    }
  },
  "viewpoints": [
    {
      "viewpoint": "Maritime operator",
      "asks": "Is passage through the Strait of Hormuz becoming more or less available, safe or costly, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Energy desk",
      "asks": "Is Gulf oil and gas supply at risk this month, and why?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    },
    {
      "viewpoint": "Escalation analyst",
      "asks": "Is the conflict between the United States and Iran escalating or easing?",
      "sortedReading": {
        "state": "cannot-measure",
        "reason": "Sorting for this viewpoint is not published yet. It is built every day and checked against what happens next before we publish it. Until then nothing on this page is placed for one viewpoint over another; the claims below are the same for every reader."
      }
    }
  ]
}

The ledger's own counts. No viewpoint has a published sorted reading yet, and each says so instead of showing a placement.

GET claims_hormuz.json → kernel[newest corroborated] where-from, folded one level

{
  "claim": "The incident took place about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal at 2320 GMT on November 4, 2026, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which said it had received a verified report.",
  "status": "single-source",
  "independentChains": 1,
  "repetition": null,
  "standing": {
    "unit": "event",
    "level": "corroborated",
    "word": "Corroborated",
    "separateReports": 3,
    "outlets": 3,
    "repeated": null,
    "eventKey": "ev1:0325fd3c12ccb476",
    "sentencesInEvent": 3,
    "eventMatch": "matched"
  },
  "whereFrom": {
    "level": "where from",
    "label": "Where from",
    "relations": [
      {
        "role": "part of",
        "members": [
          "/event/strait-of-hormuz/",
          "/record/"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "children": [
      {
        "level": "report",
        "label": "Marine Insight · first seen 6 Nov",
        "children": {
          "count": 1,
          "unfold": "expand=+1"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
}

The newest corroborated claim in the Hormuz reporting ledger, with its where-from tree folded below the first level. Its standing and counts are the ones this page shows, in the unit named (one sentence, or the event its sentences report); status and independentChains are the sentence's own, kept beside them. Each level names how to unfold the next, and every branch ends at a source link or a stated reason.