Strait of Hormuz
The ledger holds 3,978 sentences about the strait. Grouped by the event they report, they make 2,452 events: 20 corroborated, 78 reported by two, 2,354 single source. The ledger also holds 1,296 sentences the event rule could not place; each counts on its own sources. 74 of those events were carried by several reports that all ran in one outlet or in the same words; repeated is not corroborated, so each counts by its separate sources. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. 4 claims were replaced by a later report since 3 Sep; they are kept, marked, and not counted here. The record also holds 4 pairs of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether they differ. The newest of the best-supported are below.
- First reported 8 Nov
CENTCOM estimates that the blockade has prevented Iran from exporting more than $25 billion worth of crude oil, although that figure has not been independently verified.
- First reported 6 Nov
DUBAI — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed on Friday that two more oil tankers struck naval mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the latest in a series of unverified assertions that no independent maritime authority has confirmed.
- First reported 6 Nov
The incident took place about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal at 2320 GMT on November 4, 2026, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which said it had received a verified report.
- First reported 4 Nov
Tensions in the Middle East remained in focus after US officials reported conducting “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, which targeted surface-to-air missiles.
- First reported 3 Nov
Prices initially rebounded overnight after reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, before reversing sharply Tuesday morning.
- First reported 3 Nov
According to the report, in one exchange, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired a surface-to-air missile at a US warplane, which fired back in self-defence.
- First reported 9 Nov
- US President Donald Trump says Washington’s latest blockade on Iran’s land supply routes, dubbed “Iron Gate”, is in effect, and that renewed strikes are “highly unlikely” if there is progress in talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- First reported 9 Nov
Mutual attacks continue, with the US striking Iran's Qeshm island overnight, according to Iranian state media, and Iran attacking tankers in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz this month while its Yemeni Houthi allies have hit Saudi Arabia.
From the live Hormuz record: on Polymarket, “Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?” was priced at 25% when last seen (2026-11-09). That is Polymarket’s price, quoted as published. SigB publishes no probability of its own.
Set aside · 9 claims, each with why
- Iraq is importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
- An Iranian commercial ship was struck near Strait of Hormuz with 1 dead. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.
- One person was killed in a ship strike on the Strait of Hormuz. Every report came from outlets that do not cover this subject.